International Friendly Games
Liberia vs Sierra Leone
Tuesday, Jun 09, 18:30
Consensus
Medium · 66.4%Liberia
59.0%
book 37.0%
Draw
20.6%
book 28.7%
Sierra Leone
20.4%
book 34.3%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| form | 52.5% | 32.3% | 15.2% |
| poisson | 96.8% | 2.2% | 1.0% |
| elo | 45.2% | 26.5% | 28.2% |
| market | 37.0% | 28.7% | 34.3% |
- Liberia wPPG 0.26 (home 0.67, L-L-D-L-L)
- Sierra Leone wPPG 0.30 (away 0.00, L-L-D-L-L)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta 0.77
- xG Liberia 5.43 vs Sierra Leone 0.67
- League avg: home 1.50 / away 1.15
- Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
- Elo Liberia 1450 vs Sierra Leone 1428
- Home-field bonus +60
- Bookmaker 1X2 prices, with their margin stripped out
Value
- home 2.45EV +44.6%Edge 22.0%Kelly 30.7%