International Friendly Games
Indonesia vs Mozambique
Tuesday, Jun 09, 13:00
Consensus
High · 82.9%Indonesia
82.5%
book 71.6%
Draw
11.8%
book 17.5%
Mozambique
5.7%
book 11.0%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| form | 75.2% | 24.0% | 0.8% |
| poisson | 99.0% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| elo | 61.7% | 18.7% | 19.6% |
| market | 71.6% | 17.5% | 11.0% |
- Indonesia wPPG 1.60 (home 2.00, D-W-D-W)
- Mozambique wPPG 0.08 (away 0.20, L-L-L-D-L)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta 2.83
- xG Indonesia 5.09 vs Mozambique 0.10
- League avg: home 1.50 / away 1.15
- Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
- Elo Indonesia 1568 vs Mozambique 1428
- Home-field bonus +60
- Bookmaker 1X2 prices, with their margin stripped out
Value
- home 1.33EV +9.8%Edge 11.0%Kelly 29.6%