International Friendly Games
Iraq vs Venezuela
Wednesday, Jun 10, 01:00
Consensus
Low · 31.4%Iraq
22.7%
book 27.7%
Draw
34.9%
book 29.2%
Venezuela
42.4%
book 43.1%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| form | 35.5% | 38.1% | 26.4% |
| poisson | 4.8% | 43.3% | 51.9% |
| elo | 44.2% | 27.0% | 28.8% |
| market | 27.7% | 29.2% | 43.1% |
- Iraq wPPG 1.07 (home 0.00, W-D-L)
- Venezuela wPPG 0.69 (away 0.80, L-L-D-L-L)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta 0.19
- xG Iraq 0.10 vs Venezuela 0.80
- League avg: home 1.50 / away 1.15
- Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
- Elo Iraq 1491 vs Venezuela 1477
- Home-field bonus +60
- Bookmaker 1X2 prices, with their margin stripped out
Value
- draw 3.10EV +8.2%Edge 5.7%Kelly 3.9%
Goalscorer probabilities
xG 0.10 – 0.80 · No goal 40.7% confirmed XI
Each player's chance of scoring blends their club goals from the last 6 match-equivalents with national-team form (UEFA / FIFA tournaments). Rates are nudged toward a typical level for their position so small samples don't run wild, then scaled to fit the team's expected goals shown above.
| Track | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Ramírez | Venezuela | F | 0.31 | 22.0% | 15.4% | |
| C. Cásseres Jr. | Venezuela | M | 0.13 | 9.7% | 6.3% | |
| G. Mendoza | Venezuela | M | 0.13 | 9.7% | 6.3% | |
| D. Pereira | Venezuela | M | 0.06 | 4.4% | 2.8% | |
| E. Echenique | Venezuela | M | 0.06 | 4.4% | 2.8% | |
| T. Segovia | Venezuela | M | 0.06 | 4.4% | 2.8% | |
| A. Hussein | Iraq | F | 0.63 | 4.4% | 2.8% | |
| D. M. Morales | Venezuela | F | 0.17 | 2.6% | 1.6% | |
| K. Kelsy | Venezuela | F | 0.17 | 2.6% | 1.6% | |
| E. Tortolero | Venezuela | F | 0.17 | 2.6% | 1.6% | |
| N. Ferraresi | Venezuela | D | 0.03 | 2.2% | 1.4% | |
| J. Aramburu | Venezuela | D | 0.03 | 2.2% | 1.4% | |
| T. Q. León | Venezuela | D | 0.03 | 2.2% | 1.4% | |
| L. Balbo | Venezuela | D | 0.03 | 2.2% | 1.4% |
First-scorer probabilities sum to 55.8% across all named players (own goals + no goal account for the rest). To find value, divide bookmaker odds by 1/firstProb — odds higher than that mean the book is offering positive EV.