International Friendly Games
Netherlands vs Uzbekistan
Monday, Jun 08, 18:45
Consensus
High · 77.1%Netherlands
83.1%
book 79.2%
Draw
12.1%
book 14.2%
Uzbekistan
4.8%
book 6.7%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| form | 72.2% | 24.0% | 3.8% |
| poisson | 97.3% | 2.3% | 0.5% |
| elo | 49.9% | 24.3% | 25.7% |
| market | 79.2% | 14.2% | 6.7% |
- Netherlands wPPG 2.01 (home 2.29, W-L-W-W-W)
- Uzbekistan wPPG 1.61 (away 0.00, D-W-L-W-W)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta 1.85
- xG Netherlands 4.22 vs Uzbekistan 0.19
- League avg: home 1.50 / away 1.15
- Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
- Elo Netherlands 1560 vs Uzbekistan 1505
- Home-field bonus +60
- Bookmaker 1X2 prices, with their margin stripped out
Value
No edge detected vs current bookmaker odds (or odds unavailable).
Goalscorer probabilities
xG 4.22 – 0.19 · No goal 1.2% confirmed XI
Each player's chance of scoring blends their club goals from the last 5 match-equivalents with national-team form (UEFA / FIFA tournaments). Rates are nudged toward a typical level for their position so small samples don't run wild, then scaled to fit the team's expected goals shown above.
| Track | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Malen | Netherlands | F | 0.33 | 53.8% | 16.3% | |
| C. Gakpo | Netherlands | F | 0.33 | 53.8% | 16.3% | |
| V. van Dijk | Netherlands | D | 0.25 | 43.9% | 12.2% | |
| T. Reijnders | Netherlands | M | 0.21 | 38.8% | 10.3% | |
| C. Summerville | Netherlands | F | 0.18 | 34.4% | 8.9% | |
| W. Weghorst | Netherlands | F | 0.41 | 16.7% | 3.8% | |
| R. Gravenberch | Netherlands | M | 0.06 | 13.1% | 3.0% | |
| F. de Jong | Netherlands | M | 0.06 | 13.1% | 3.0% | |
| M. Depay | Netherlands | F | 0.26 | 10.8% | 2.4% | |
| B. Brobbey | Netherlands | F | 0.18 | 7.8% | 1.7% | |
| J. Kluivert | Netherlands | F | 0.18 | 7.8% | 1.7% | |
| N. Lang | Netherlands | F | 0.18 | 7.8% | 1.7% | |
| D. Dumfries | Netherlands | D | 0.03 | 6.6% | 1.4% | |
| J. P. van Hecke | Netherlands | D | 0.03 | 6.6% | 1.4% |
First-scorer probabilities sum to 92.9% across all named players (own goals + no goal account for the rest). To find value, divide bookmaker odds by 1/firstProb — odds higher than that mean the book is offering positive EV.