Euroleague
Valencia Basket vs Real Madrid
Friday, May 22, 18:00
Consensus
Medium · 59.2%Valencia Basket
56.5%
book 48.9%
Real Madrid
43.5%
book 51.1%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| form | 42.2% | 57.8% |
| normal | 80.1% | 19.9% |
| elo | 58.5% | 41.5% |
| market | 48.9% | 51.1% |
- Valencia Basket wPPG 1.39 (home 2.00, W-W-W-L-W)
- Real Madrid wPPG 1.90 (away 2.25, W-W-W-L-W)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta -0.20
- Expected score Valencia Basket 75.5 vs Real Madrid 67.9
- Margin μ=10.14, σ=12
- P(home) = Φ(μ/σ) = 80.1%
- Elo Valencia Basket 1620 vs Real Madrid 1620
- Home-field bonus +60
- Bookmaker Money line prices, with their margin stripped out
Value
- home 1.86EV +5.1%Edge 7.5%Kelly 5.9%