International Friendly Games
Argentina vs Iceland
Wednesday, Jun 10, 01:00
Consensus
High · 79.4%Argentina
82.4%
book 79.3%
Draw
13.6%
book 15.6%
Iceland
4.0%
book 5.1%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| form | 73.5% | 24.0% | 2.5% |
| poisson | 94.8% | 4.4% | 0.8% |
| elo | 62.3% | 18.4% | 19.3% |
| market | 79.3% | 15.6% | 5.1% |
- Argentina wPPG 3.12 (home 3.00, W-W-W-W-W)
- Iceland wPPG 1.77 (away 1.27, W-W-W-L-W)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta 2.11
- xG Argentina 3.36 vs Iceland 0.15
- League avg: home 1.50 / away 1.15
- Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
- Elo Argentina 1616 vs Iceland 1472
- Home-field bonus +60
- Bookmaker 1X2 prices, with their margin stripped out
Value
No edge detected vs current bookmaker odds (or odds unavailable).
Goalscorer probabilities
xG 3.36 – 0.15 · No goal 3.0% confirmed XI
Each player's chance of scoring blends their club goals from the last 7 match-equivalents with national-team form (UEFA / FIFA tournaments). Rates are nudged toward a typical level for their position so small samples don't run wild, then scaled to fit the team's expected goals shown above.
| Track | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Paz | Argentina | F | 0.22 | 38.6% | 12.7% | |
| G. Lo Celso | Argentina | M | 0.18 | 33.1% | 10.4% | |
| V. Barco | Argentina | M | 0.18 | 33.1% | 10.4% | |
| J. López | Argentina | F | 0.16 | 29.1% | 8.9% | |
| L. Martínez | Argentina | F | 0.61 | 22.8% | 6.7% | |
| G. Simeone | Argentina | M | 0.12 | 22.7% | 6.7% | |
| L. Messi | Argentina | F | 0.48 | 18.5% | 5.3% | |
| N. Otamendi | Argentina | D | 0.09 | 17.6% | 5.0% | |
| E. Palacios | Argentina | M | 0.05 | 10.8% | 3.0% | |
| A. Mac Allister | Argentina | M | 0.25 | 9.9% | 2.7% | |
| J. Álvarez | Argentina | F | 0.22 | 8.9% | 2.4% | |
| E. Fernández | Argentina | M | 0.18 | 7.4% | 2.0% | |
| N. González | Argentina | F | 0.16 | 6.4% | 1.7% | |
| A. Giay | Argentina | D | 0.03 | 5.4% | 1.4% |
First-scorer probabilities sum to 91.2% across all named players (own goals + no goal account for the rest). To find value, divide bookmaker odds by 1/firstProb — odds higher than that mean the book is offering positive EV.