International Friendly Games
San Marino vs Azerbaijan
Tuesday, Jun 09, 18:00
Consensus
Low · 27.4%San Marino
16.7%
book 4.2%
Draw
23.9%
book 13.4%
Azerbaijan
59.4%
book 82.4%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| form | 23.2% | 36.6% | 40.3% |
| poisson | 40.5% | 34.1% | 25.4% |
| elo | 36.9% | 30.5% | 32.5% |
| market | 4.2% | 13.4% | 82.4% |
- San Marino wPPG 0.13 (home 0.33, L-D-L-L-L)
- Azerbaijan wPPG 1.04 (away 0.50, W-W-D-L-W)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta -0.34
- xG San Marino 0.87 vs Azerbaijan 0.61
- League avg: home 1.50 / away 1.15
- Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
- Elo San Marino 1432 vs Azerbaijan 1470
- Home-field bonus +60
- Bookmaker 1X2 prices, with their margin stripped out
Value
- home 17.00EV +183.4%Edge 12.5%Kelly 11.5%
- draw 6.50EV +55.6%Edge 10.5%Kelly 10.1%