International Friendly Games
France vs Northern Ireland
Monday, Jun 08, 19:10
Consensus
Medium · 64.7%France
77.8%
book 86.8%
Draw
14.4%
book 9.7%
Northern Ireland
7.8%
book 3.5%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| form | 54.5% | 31.5% | 14.0% |
| poisson | 79.8% | 11.8% | 8.3% |
| elo | 47.6% | 25.4% | 27.0% |
| market | 86.8% | 9.7% | 3.5% |
- France wPPG 1.60 (home 1.40, L-W-W-D-W)
- Northern Ireland wPPG 1.10 (away 0.83, D-W-L-W-D)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta 0.85
- xG France 2.84 vs Northern Ireland 0.80
- League avg: home 1.50 / away 1.15
- Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
- Elo France 1522 vs Northern Ireland 1483
- Home-field bonus +60
- Bookmaker 1X2 prices, with their margin stripped out
Value
- draw 8.50EV +22.6%Edge 4.7%Kelly 3.0%
- away 19.00EV +48.3%Edge 4.3%Kelly 2.7%
Goalscorer probabilities
xG 2.84 – 0.80 · No goal 2.6% confirmed XI
Each player's chance of scoring blends their club goals from the last 5 match-equivalents with national-team form (UEFA / FIFA tournaments). Rates are nudged toward a typical level for their position so small samples don't run wild, then scaled to fit the team's expected goals shown above.
| Track | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Mbappé | France | F | 0.35 | 56.9% | 21.1% | |
| D. Doué | France | M | 0.22 | 41.4% | 13.5% | |
| I. Price | Northern Ireland | F | 0.37 | 20.4% | 5.7% | |
| A. Tchouaméni | France | M | 0.06 | 14.2% | 3.8% | |
| A. Rabiot | France | M | 0.06 | 14.2% | 3.8% | |
| M. Olise | France | M | 0.06 | 14.2% | 3.8% | |
| O. Dembélé | France | M | 0.06 | 14.2% | 3.8% | |
| J. Donley | Northern Ireland | F | 0.23 | 13.4% | 3.6% | |
| M. Thuram | France | F | 0.27 | 11.7% | 3.1% | |
| P. Kelly | Northern Ireland | F | 0.16 | 9.6% | 2.5% | |
| J. Mateta | France | F | 0.19 | 8.4% | 2.2% | |
| B. Barcola | France | F | 0.19 | 8.4% | 2.2% | |
| J. Koundé | France | D | 0.03 | 7.1% | 1.9% | |
| D. Upamecano | France | D | 0.03 | 7.1% | 1.9% |
First-scorer probabilities sum to 91.5% across all named players (own goals + no goal account for the rest). To find value, divide bookmaker odds by 1/firstProb — odds higher than that mean the book is offering positive EV.