International Friendly Games
Spain vs Peru
Tuesday, Jun 09, 02:00
Consensus
High · 71.0%Spain
80.4%
book 82.2%
Draw
13.3%
book 12.6%
Peru
6.3%
book 5.2%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| form | 59.2% | 29.6% | 11.2% |
| poisson | 92.8% | 4.9% | 2.3% |
| elo | 49.5% | 24.5% | 26.0% |
| market | 82.2% | 12.6% | 5.2% |
- Spain wPPG 1.62 (home 2.00, D-W-W-W-D)
- Peru wPPG 2.05 (away 0.80, W-W-D-W-L)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta 1.04
- xG Spain 3.94 vs Peru 0.56
- League avg: home 1.50 / away 1.15
- Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
- Elo Spain 1572 vs Peru 1520
- Home-field bonus +60
- Bookmaker 1X2 prices, with their margin stripped out
Value
No edge detected vs current bookmaker odds (or odds unavailable).
Goalscorer probabilities
xG 3.94 – 0.56 · No goal 1.1% predicted XI
Each player's chance of scoring blends their club goals from the last 4 match-equivalents with national-team form (UEFA / FIFA tournaments). Rates are nudged toward a typical level for their position so small samples don't run wild, then scaled to fit the team's expected goals shown above.
| Track | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Oyarzabal | Spain | F | 0.70 | 75.5% | 29.1% | |
| F. Torres | Spain | F | 0.37 | 52.1% | 15.2% | |
| Pedri | Spain | M | 0.23 | 37.4% | 9.7% | |
| Rodri | Spain | M | 0.23 | 37.4% | 9.7% | |
| F. Ruiz | Spain | M | 0.15 | 26.0% | 6.2% | |
| D. Olmo | Spain | M | 0.15 | 26.0% | 6.2% | |
| J. Vélez | Peru | M | 0.25 | 16.3% | 3.7% | |
| A. Ugarriza | Peru | F | 0.16 | 10.6% | 2.3% | |
| M. Llorente | Spain | D | 0.03 | 6.3% | 1.3% | |
| P. Cubarsí | Spain | D | 0.03 | 6.3% | 1.3% | |
| A. Laporte | Spain | D | 0.03 | 6.3% | 1.3% | |
| M. Cucurella | Spain | D | 0.03 | 6.3% | 1.3% | |
| R. Garces | Peru | D | 0.09 | 6.1% | 1.3% | |
| A. Carrillo | Peru | M | 0.05 | 3.7% | 0.8% |
First-scorer probabilities sum to 93.0% across all named players (own goals + no goal account for the rest). To find value, divide bookmaker odds by 1/firstProb — odds higher than that mean the book is offering positive EV.