NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves vs San Antonio Spurs
Saturday, May 16, 01:30
Consensus
High · 77.0%Minnesota Timberwolves
26.3%
book 35.5%
San Antonio Spurs
73.7%
book 64.5%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| form | 4.4% | 95.6% |
| normal | 22.0% | 78.0% |
| elo | 33.9% | 66.1% |
| market | 35.5% | 64.5% |
- Minnesota Timberwolves wPPG 0.66 (home 1.80, L-L-L-W-L)
- San Antonio Spurs wPPG 1.93 (away 3.00, W-W-W-L-W)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta -1.92
- Expected score Minnesota Timberwolves 113.8 vs San Antonio Spurs 125.6
- Margin μ=-9.28, σ=12
- P(home) = Φ(μ/σ) = 22.0%
- Elo Minnesota Timberwolves 1444 vs San Antonio Spurs 1620
- Home-field bonus +60
- Bookmaker Money line prices, with their margin stripped out
Value
- away 1.50EV +10.5%Edge 9.2%Kelly 21.1%