UEFA Conference League
Crystal Palace vs Rayo Vallecano
Wednesday, May 27, 19:00
Consensus
Medium · 57.5%Crystal Palace
56.1%
book 49.6%
Draw
25.6%
book 26.3%
Rayo Vallecano
18.4%
book 24.1%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| form | 47.2% | 34.2% | 18.6% |
| poisson | 80.0% | 15.3% | 4.7% |
| elo | 42.4% | 27.9% | 29.7% |
| market | 49.6% | 26.3% | 24.1% |
- Crystal Palace wPPG 2.70 (home 2.50, D-W-D-W-W)
- Rayo Vallecano wPPG 2.57 (away 2.00, W-W-L-W-L)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta 0.58
- xG Crystal Palace 2.03 vs Rayo Vallecano 0.28
- League avg: home 1.50 / away 1.15
- Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
- Elo Crystal Palace 1540 vs Rayo Vallecano 1538
- Home-field bonus +60
- Bookmaker 1X2 prices, with their margin stripped out
Value
- home 1.91EV +7.1%Edge 6.4%Kelly 7.8%