MLB
Boston Red Sox vs Philadelphia Phillies
Thursday, May 14, 22:45
Consensus
High · 72.1%Boston Red Sox
68.1%
book 50.0%
Philadelphia Phillies
31.9%
book 50.0%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| form | 92.7% | 7.3% |
| poisson | 76.0% | 24.0% |
| elo | 71.4% | 28.6% |
| market | 50.0% | 50.0% |
- Boston Red Sox wPPG 1.40 (home 1.20, W-W-L-L-W)
- Philadelphia Phillies wPPG 0.45 (away 0.00, L-W-L-L-L)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta 1.59
- xG Boston Red Sox 3.45 vs Philadelphia Phillies 2.03
- League avg: home 4.60 / away 4.40
- Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
- Elo Boston Red Sox 1479 vs Philadelphia Phillies 1380
- Home-field bonus +60
- Bookmaker Money line prices, with their margin stripped out
Value
- home 1.91EV +30.0%Edge 18.1%Kelly 33.0%