WNBA
Connecticut Sun vs Las Vegas Aces
Friday, May 15, 23:30
Consensus
High · 74.5%Connecticut Sun
12.3%
book 7.4%
Las Vegas Aces
87.7%
book 92.6%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| form | 1.8% | 98.2% |
| normal | 48.4% | 51.6% |
| elo | 26.2% | 73.8% |
| market | 7.4% | 92.6% |
- Connecticut Sun wPPG 0.35 (home 1.00, L-L-L-L-W)
- Las Vegas Aces wPPG 2.04 (away 3.00, W-W-W-W-W)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta -2.50
- Expected score Connecticut Sun 59.2 vs Las Vegas Aces 62.1
- Margin μ=-0.47, σ=12
- P(home) = Φ(μ/σ) = 48.4%
- Elo Connecticut Sun 1380 vs Las Vegas Aces 1620
- Home-field bonus +60
- Bookmaker Money line prices, with their margin stripped out
Value
- home 10.00EV +23.1%Edge 4.9%Kelly 2.6%