WNBA
Portland Fire vs New York Liberty
Friday, May 15, 02:00
Consensus
Medium · 64.7%Portland Fire
23.9%
book 14.1%
New York Liberty
76.1%
book 85.9%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| form | 21.0% | 79.0% |
| normal | 46.9% | 53.1% |
| elo | 39.7% | 60.3% |
| market | 14.1% | 85.9% |
- Portland Fire wPPG 0.40 (home 1.00, L-L-L-W)
- New York Liberty wPPG 0.89 (away 1.50, W-L-L-L-L)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta -0.83
- Expected score Portland Fire 67.5 vs New York Liberty 70.9
- Margin μ=-0.93, σ=12
- P(home) = Φ(μ/σ) = 46.9%
- Elo Portland Fire 1380 vs New York Liberty 1513
- Home-field bonus +60
- Bookmaker Money line prices, with their margin stripped out
Value
- home 5.75EV +37.6%Edge 9.9%Kelly 7.9%