Brasileirão Betano
Athletico vs Flamengo
Sunday, May 17, 22:30
Consensus
Low · 33.6%Athletico
36.2%
book 28.3%
Draw
28.6%
book 27.4%
Flamengo
35.1%
book 44.3%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| form | 31.2% | 39.6% | 29.2% |
| poisson | 60.1% | 22.2% | 17.6% |
| elo | 37.0% | 30.5% | 32.5% |
| market | 28.3% | 27.4% | 44.3% |
- Athletico wPPG 1.78 (home 2.38, W-W-L-D-L)
- Flamengo wPPG 1.92 (away 2.00, L-D-W-W-W)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta 0.04
- xG Athletico 1.63 vs Flamengo 0.73
- League avg: home 1.50 / away 1.15
- Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
- Elo Athletico 1513 vs Flamengo 1550
- Home-field bonus +60
- Bookmaker 1X2 prices, with their margin stripped out
Value
- home 3.30EV +19.5%Edge 7.9%Kelly 8.5%
Goalscorer probabilities
xG 1.63 – 0.73 · No goal 9.4% predicted XI
Each player's chance of scoring blends their club goals from the last 10 match-equivalents with national-team form (UEFA / FIFA tournaments). Rates are nudged toward a typical level for their position so small samples don't run wild, then scaled to fit the team's expected goals shown above.
| Track | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Viveros | Athletico | F | 0.58 | 54.0% | 28.0% | |
| S. Mendoza | Athletico | M | 0.27 | 30.1% | 12.9% | |
| Pedro | Flamengo | F | 0.60 | 26.3% | 11.0% | |
| J. F. Aguirre | Athletico | D | 0.07 | 9.5% | 3.6% | |
| L. Esquivel | Athletico | D | 0.07 | 9.5% | 3.6% | |
| G. Plata | Flamengo | M | 0.16 | 7.9% | 3.0% | |
| J. Carrascal | Flamengo | M | 0.16 | 7.9% | 3.0% | |
| S. Lino | Flamengo | M | 0.16 | 7.9% | 3.0% | |
| Jádson | Athletico | M | 0.04 | 5.8% | 2.2% | |
| Felipinho | Athletico | M | 0.04 | 5.8% | 2.2% | |
| J. Cruz | Athletico | M | 0.04 | 5.8% | 2.2% | |
| Bruninho | Athletico | M | 0.04 | 5.8% | 2.2% | |
| E. Pulgar | Flamengo | M | 0.10 | 5.1% | 1.9% | |
| L. Ortiz | Flamengo | D | 0.08 | 3.9% | 1.4% |
First-scorer probabilities sum to 85.1% across all named players (own goals + no goal account for the rest). To find value, divide bookmaker odds by 1/firstProb — odds higher than that mean the book is offering positive EV.