Brasileirão Betano
Grêmio vs Santos
Saturday, May 23, 22:00
Consensus
Medium · 58.1%Grêmio
55.2%
book 47.0%
Draw
25.1%
book 28.3%
Santos
19.7%
book 24.7%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| form | 54.7% | 31.4% | 13.9% |
| poisson | 79.8% | 12.1% | 8.1% |
| elo | 41.7% | 28.2% | 30.1% |
| market | 47.0% | 28.3% | 24.7% |
- Grêmio wPPG 1.08 (home 2.00, L-W-L-W-D)
- Santos wPPG 1.00 (away 0.57, L-D-L-W-D)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta 0.86
- xG Grêmio 2.73 vs Santos 0.73
- League avg: home 1.50 / away 1.15
- Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
- Elo Grêmio 1494 vs Santos 1497
- Home-field bonus +60
- Bookmaker 1X2 prices, with their margin stripped out
Value
- home 2.01EV +10.9%Edge 8.2%Kelly 10.8%