Brasileirão Betano
Bahia vs Grêmio
Sunday, May 17, 19:00
Consensus
Medium · 60.3%Bahia
58.9%
book 54.3%
Draw
24.3%
book 24.6%
Grêmio
16.8%
book 21.1%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| form | 61.0% | 28.8% | 10.2% |
| poisson | 74.7% | 17.9% | 7.4% |
| elo | 44.0% | 27.1% | 28.9% |
| market | 54.3% | 24.6% | 21.1% |
- Bahia wPPG 2.04 (home 1.29, W-D-W-D-W)
- Grêmio wPPG 1.08 (away 0.38, L-W-L-W-D)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta 1.12
- xG Bahia 1.88 vs Grêmio 0.38
- League avg: home 1.50 / away 1.15
- Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
- Elo Bahia 1507 vs Grêmio 1494
- Home-field bonus +60
- Bookmaker 1X2 prices, with their margin stripped out
Value
- home 1.76EV +3.7%Edge 4.6%Kelly 4.8%
Goalscorer probabilities
xG 1.88 – 0.38 · No goal 10.4% predicted XI
Each player's chance of scoring blends their club goals from the last 10 match-equivalents with national-team form (UEFA / FIFA tournaments). Rates are nudged toward a typical level for their position so small samples don't run wild, then scaled to fit the team's expected goals shown above.
| Track | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Juba | Bahia | D | 0.41 | 40.5% | 19.4% | |
| Everaldo | Bahia | F | 0.31 | 32.7% | 14.8% | |
| Erick | Bahia | M | 0.16 | 18.6% | 7.7% | |
| J. Lucas | Bahia | M | 0.16 | 18.6% | 7.7% | |
| C. Vinícius | Grêmio | F | 0.52 | 16.3% | 6.6% | |
| E. Pulga | Bahia | F | 0.14 | 16.1% | 6.6% | |
| C. Olivera | Bahia | M | 0.10 | 12.4% | 4.9% | |
| D. Duarte | Bahia | D | 0.08 | 9.4% | 3.7% | |
| Tetê | Grêmio | F | 0.19 | 6.3% | 2.4% | |
| N. Acevedo | Bahia | M | 0.05 | 5.7% | 2.2% | |
| E. Ribeiro | Bahia | M | 0.05 | 5.7% | 2.2% | |
| G. Mec | Grêmio | M | 0.10 | 3.4% | 1.3% | |
| F. Amuzu | Grêmio | M | 0.10 | 3.4% | 1.3% | |
| G. Xavier | Bahia | D | 0.02 | 2.8% | 1.0% |
First-scorer probabilities sum to 84.2% across all named players (own goals + no goal account for the rest). To find value, divide bookmaker odds by 1/firstProb — odds higher than that mean the book is offering positive EV.