Brasileirão Betano
São Paulo vs Botafogo
Saturday, May 23, 20:00
Consensus
Medium · 65.1%São Paulo
60.4%
book 48.9%
Draw
22.7%
book 27.3%
Botafogo
16.8%
book 23.8%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| form | 71.0% | 24.0% | 5.0% |
| poisson | 83.6% | 9.7% | 6.7% |
| elo | 46.9% | 25.8% | 27.4% |
| market | 48.9% | 27.3% | 23.8% |
- São Paulo wPPG 2.17 (home 2.29, W-D-W-W-W)
- Botafogo wPPG 0.85 (away 1.25, L-L-L-L-W)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta 1.66
- xG São Paulo 3.23 vs Botafogo 0.83
- League avg: home 1.50 / away 1.15
- Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
- Elo São Paulo 1516 vs Botafogo 1482
- Home-field bonus +60
- Bookmaker 1X2 prices, with their margin stripped out
Value
- home 1.91EV +15.4%Edge 11.5%Kelly 17.0%