Brasileirão Betano
Internacional vs Vasco da Gama
Saturday, May 16, 21:30
Consensus
Low · 49.0%Internacional
50.6%
book 50.0%
Draw
27.2%
book 27.4%
Vasco da Gama
22.2%
book 22.5%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| form | 48.1% | 33.9% | 18.0% |
| poisson | 57.4% | 22.1% | 20.5% |
| elo | 43.0% | 27.6% | 29.4% |
| market | 50.0% | 27.4% | 22.5% |
- Internacional wPPG 1.29 (home 1.22, W-L-D-L-D)
- Vasco da Gama wPPG 1.37 (away 0.57, L-D-L-L-W)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta 0.61
- xG Internacional 1.66 vs Vasco da Gama 0.86
- League avg: home 1.50 / away 1.15
- Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
- Elo Internacional 1506 vs Vasco da Gama 1500
- Home-field bonus +60
- Bookmaker 1X2 prices, with their margin stripped out
Value
No edge detected vs current bookmaker odds (or odds unavailable).
Goalscorer probabilities
xG 1.66 – 0.86 · No goal 8.1% predicted XI
Each player's chance of scoring blends their club goals from the last 10 match-equivalents with national-team form (UEFA / FIFA tournaments). Rates are nudged toward a typical level for their position so small samples don't run wild, then scaled to fit the team's expected goals shown above.
| Track | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Carbonero | Internacional | F | 0.30 | 37.7% | 16.3% | |
| Alerrandro | Internacional | F | 0.24 | 32.0% | 13.3% | |
| A. Bernabei | Internacional | D | 0.18 | 24.8% | 9.8% | |
| G. Mercado | Internacional | D | 0.13 | 18.2% | 6.9% | |
| David | Vasco da Gama | F | 0.24 | 17.3% | 6.5% | |
| C. Barros | Vasco da Gama | M | 0.21 | 15.2% | 5.7% | |
| A. Gómez | Vasco da Gama | M | 0.16 | 11.4% | 4.2% | |
| P. Rodríguez | Vasco da Gama | D | 0.13 | 9.5% | 3.4% | |
| H. Moura | Vasco da Gama | M | 0.10 | 7.5% | 2.7% | |
| Tchê Tchê | Vasco da Gama | M | 0.10 | 7.5% | 2.7% | |
| Allex | Internacional | M | 0.04 | 6.8% | 2.4% | |
| R. Villagra | Internacional | M | 0.04 | 6.8% | 2.4% | |
| B. Henrique | Internacional | M | 0.04 | 6.8% | 2.4% | |
| R. Renan | Vasco da Gama | D | 0.07 | 5.6% | 2.0% |
First-scorer probabilities sum to 86.4% across all named players (own goals + no goal account for the rest). To find value, divide bookmaker odds by 1/firstProb — odds higher than that mean the book is offering positive EV.