Brasileirão Betano
Atlético Mineiro vs Mirassol
Saturday, May 16, 21:30
Consensus
Medium · 51.0%Atlético Mineiro
50.4%
book 47.3%
Draw
26.9%
book 28.1%
Mirassol
22.8%
book 24.6%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| form | 56.6% | 30.7% | 12.7% |
| poisson | 57.5% | 20.4% | 22.1% |
| elo | 42.6% | 27.8% | 29.6% |
| market | 47.3% | 28.1% | 24.6% |
- Atlético Mineiro wPPG 1.29 (home 1.71, D-L-D-L-W)
- Mirassol wPPG 1.01 (away 0.67, D-W-D-D-D)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta 0.93
- xG Atlético Mineiro 1.86 vs Mirassol 1.05
- League avg: home 1.50 / away 1.15
- Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
- Elo Atlético Mineiro 1491 vs Mirassol 1487
- Home-field bonus +60
- Bookmaker 1X2 prices, with their margin stripped out
Value
No edge detected vs current bookmaker odds (or odds unavailable).
Goalscorer probabilities
xG 1.86 – 1.05 · No goal 5.4% predicted XI
Each player's chance of scoring blends their club goals from the last 10 match-equivalents with national-team form (UEFA / FIFA tournaments). Rates are nudged toward a typical level for their position so small samples don't run wild, then scaled to fit the team's expected goals shown above.
| Track | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Cassierra | Atlético Mineiro | F | 0.24 | 37.4% | 14.3% | |
| A. Minda | Atlético Mineiro | F | 0.19 | 30.4% | 11.1% | |
| T. Cuello | Atlético Mineiro | M | 0.16 | 25.8% | 9.1% | |
| C. Eduardo | Mirassol | F | 0.19 | 21.0% | 7.2% | |
| Alesson | Mirassol | F | 0.19 | 21.0% | 7.2% | |
| E. Carioca | Mirassol | F | 0.19 | 21.0% | 7.2% | |
| Maycon | Atlético Mineiro | M | 0.10 | 17.5% | 5.9% | |
| Bernard | Atlético Mineiro | M | 0.10 | 17.5% | 5.9% | |
| Ruan | Atlético Mineiro | D | 0.07 | 13.3% | 4.4% | |
| Shaylon | Mirassol | M | 0.10 | 11.7% | 3.8% | |
| A. Franco | Atlético Mineiro | M | 0.04 | 8.2% | 2.6% | |
| J. Aldo | Mirassol | M | 0.04 | 5.4% | 1.7% | |
| N. Moura | Mirassol | M | 0.04 | 5.4% | 1.7% | |
| Natanael | Atlético Mineiro | D | 0.02 | 4.0% | 1.2% |
First-scorer probabilities sum to 88.9% across all named players (own goals + no goal account for the rest). To find value, divide bookmaker odds by 1/firstProb — odds higher than that mean the book is offering positive EV.