Brasileirão Betano
Palmeiras vs Cruzeiro
Sunday, May 17, 00:00
Consensus
High · 71.8%Palmeiras
68.4%
book 55.6%
Draw
19.8%
book 25.5%
Cruzeiro
11.8%
book 18.9%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| form | 73.6% | 24.0% | 2.4% |
| poisson | 92.7% | 5.1% | 2.2% |
| elo | 50.2% | 24.2% | 25.6% |
| market | 55.6% | 25.5% | 18.9% |
- Palmeiras wPPG 2.53 (home 2.71, D-W-W-W-L)
- Cruzeiro wPPG 0.83 (away 1.00, L-L-D-D-L)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta 2.15
- xG Palmeiras 3.73 vs Cruzeiro 0.48
- League avg: home 1.50 / away 1.15
- Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
- Elo Palmeiras 1541 vs Cruzeiro 1484
- Home-field bonus +60
- Bookmaker 1X2 prices, with their margin stripped out
Value
- home 1.71EV +17.0%Edge 12.8%Kelly 23.9%
Goalscorer probabilities
xG 3.73 – 0.48 · No goal 1.5% predicted XI
Each player's chance of scoring blends their club goals from the last 10 match-equivalents with national-team form (UEFA / FIFA tournaments). Rates are nudged toward a typical level for their position so small samples don't run wild, then scaled to fit the team's expected goals shown above.
| Track | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. López | Palmeiras | F | 0.41 | 64.9% | 23.1% | |
| R. Sosa | Palmeiras | F | 0.24 | 46.3% | 13.7% | |
| J. Arias | Palmeiras | M | 0.21 | 41.6% | 11.8% | |
| G. Gómez | Palmeiras | D | 0.18 | 36.8% | 10.1% | |
| M. Freitas | Palmeiras | M | 0.16 | 32.7% | 8.7% | |
| A. Pereira | Palmeiras | M | 0.10 | 22.5% | 5.6% | |
| Murilo | Palmeiras | D | 0.07 | 17.2% | 4.2% | |
| Christian | Cruzeiro | M | 0.32 | 12.9% | 3.1% | |
| K. Jorge | Cruzeiro | F | 0.30 | 12.1% | 2.8% | |
| F. Anderson | Palmeiras | M | 0.04 | 10.7% | 2.5% | |
| M. Pereira | Cruzeiro | M | 0.16 | 6.5% | 1.5% | |
| A. Giay | Palmeiras | D | 0.02 | 5.3% | 1.2% | |
| A. Gabriel | Palmeiras | D | 0.02 | 5.3% | 1.2% | |
| L. Romero | Cruzeiro | M | 0.10 | 4.2% | 0.9% |
First-scorer probabilities sum to 92.6% across all named players (own goals + no goal account for the rest). To find value, divide bookmaker odds by 1/firstProb — odds higher than that mean the book is offering positive EV.