Brasileirão Betano
Botafogo vs Corinthians
Sunday, May 17, 19:00
Consensus
Low · 25.8%Botafogo
39.6%
book 41.1%
Draw
29.4%
book 29.4%
Corinthians
31.0%
book 29.4%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| form | 24.3% | 37.1% | 38.6% |
| poisson | 46.1% | 24.4% | 29.6% |
| elo | 40.6% | 28.8% | 30.7% |
| market | 41.1% | 29.4% | 29.4% |
- Botafogo wPPG 0.85 (home 1.00, L-L-L-L-W)
- Corinthians wPPG 1.37 (away 1.00, L-W-W-D-L)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta -0.29
- xG Botafogo 1.39 vs Corinthians 1.05
- League avg: home 1.50 / away 1.15
- Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
- Elo Botafogo 1482 vs Corinthians 1494
- Home-field bonus +60
- Bookmaker 1X2 prices, with their margin stripped out
Value
No edge detected vs current bookmaker odds (or odds unavailable).
Goalscorer probabilities
xG 1.39 – 1.05 · No goal 8.7% predicted XI
Each player's chance of scoring blends their club goals from the last 9 match-equivalents with national-team form (UEFA / FIFA tournaments). Rates are nudged toward a typical level for their position so small samples don't run wild, then scaled to fit the team's expected goals shown above.
| Track | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Cabral | Botafogo | F | 0.38 | 26.9% | 11.0% | |
| D. Oliveira | Botafogo | M | 0.35 | 24.8% | 10.0% | |
| Edenilson | Botafogo | M | 0.29 | 21.0% | 8.3% | |
| Y. Alberto | Corinthians | F | 0.19 | 17.6% | 6.8% | |
| J. Santos | Botafogo | F | 0.20 | 15.4% | 5.9% | |
| B. Bidon | Corinthians | M | 0.16 | 14.7% | 5.6% | |
| J. Lingard | Corinthians | F | 0.13 | 12.8% | 4.8% | |
| M. Bidu | Corinthians | D | 0.13 | 12.2% | 4.6% | |
| A. Telles | Botafogo | D | 0.14 | 10.7% | 4.0% | |
| Raniele | Corinthians | M | 0.10 | 9.7% | 3.6% | |
| A. Luiz | Corinthians | M | 0.10 | 9.7% | 3.6% | |
| R. Garro | Corinthians | M | 0.10 | 9.7% | 3.6% | |
| C. Medina | Botafogo | M | 0.11 | 8.4% | 3.1% | |
| Matheuzinho | Corinthians | D | 0.07 | 7.3% | 2.7% |
First-scorer probabilities sum to 85.8% across all named players (own goals + no goal account for the rest). To find value, divide bookmaker odds by 1/firstProb — odds higher than that mean the book is offering positive EV.