Brasileirão Betano
Fluminense vs São Paulo
Saturday, May 16, 22:00
Consensus
Medium · 55.5%Fluminense
57.2%
book 56.1%
Draw
24.4%
book 24.7%
São Paulo
18.4%
book 19.2%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| form | 49.0% | 33.5% | 17.5% |
| poisson | 72.1% | 16.1% | 11.8% |
| elo | 42.2% | 28.0% | 29.8% |
| market | 56.1% | 24.7% | 19.2% |
- Fluminense wPPG 1.93 (home 2.38, W-D-W-L-W)
- São Paulo wPPG 2.17 (away 1.00, W-D-W-W-W)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta 0.65
- xG Fluminense 2.24 vs São Paulo 0.75
- League avg: home 1.50 / away 1.15
- Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
- Elo Fluminense 1516 vs São Paulo 1516
- Home-field bonus +60
- Bookmaker 1X2 prices, with their margin stripped out
Value
No edge detected vs current bookmaker odds (or odds unavailable).
Goalscorer probabilities
xG 2.24 – 0.75 · No goal 5.0% predicted XI
Each player's chance of scoring blends their club goals from the last 10 match-equivalents with national-team form (UEFA / FIFA tournaments). Rates are nudged toward a typical level for their position so small samples don't run wild, then scaled to fit the team's expected goals shown above.
| Track | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Kennedy | Fluminense | F | 0.52 | 53.0% | 22.6% | |
| Hércules | Fluminense | M | 0.21 | 26.3% | 9.1% | |
| A. Canobbio | Fluminense | M | 0.21 | 26.3% | 9.1% | |
| L. Acosta | Fluminense | M | 0.21 | 26.3% | 9.1% | |
| J. Savarino | Fluminense | M | 0.21 | 26.3% | 9.1% | |
| Ferreira | São Paulo | M | 0.27 | 20.3% | 6.8% | |
| A. Silva | São Paulo | F | 0.13 | 10.7% | 3.4% | |
| G. Arana | Fluminense | D | 0.07 | 10.2% | 3.2% | |
| Danielzinho | São Paulo | M | 0.10 | 8.1% | 2.5% | |
| Artur | São Paulo | M | 0.10 | 8.1% | 2.5% | |
| Cauly | São Paulo | M | 0.10 | 8.1% | 2.5% | |
| F. Bernal | Fluminense | M | 0.04 | 6.2% | 1.9% | |
| Sabino | São Paulo | D | 0.07 | 6.1% | 1.9% | |
| D. Bobadilla | São Paulo | M | 0.04 | 3.7% | 1.1% |
First-scorer probabilities sum to 89.3% across all named players (own goals + no goal account for the rest). To find value, divide bookmaker odds by 1/firstProb — odds higher than that mean the book is offering positive EV.