FIFA World Cup
Sweden vs Tunisia
Monday, Jun 15, 02:00
Consensus
Medium · 54.9%Sweden
55.8%
book 53.1%
Draw
25.3%
book 26.6%
Tunisia
19.0%
book 20.3%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| form | 48.2% | 33.8% | 17.9% |
| poisson | 73.5% | 15.4% | 11.2% |
| elo | 41.3% | 28.4% | 30.3% |
| market | 53.1% | 26.6% | 20.3% |
- Sweden wPPG 1.41 (home 2.63, W-D-L-W-W)
- Tunisia wPPG 1.29 (away 1.63, D-W-L-W-W)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta 0.62
- xG Sweden 2.32 vs Tunisia 0.75
- League avg: home 1.50 / away 1.15
- Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
- Elo Sweden 1535 vs Tunisia 1541
- Home-field bonus +60
- Bookmaker 1X2 prices, with their margin stripped out
Value
No edge detected vs current bookmaker odds (or odds unavailable).
Goalscorer probabilities
xG 2.32 – 0.75 · No goal 4.6% confirmed XI
Each player's chance of scoring blends their club goals from the last 10 match-equivalents with national-team form (UEFA / FIFA tournaments). Rates are nudged toward a typical level for their position so small samples don't run wild, then scaled to fit the team's expected goals shown above.
| Track | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| V. Gyökeres | Sweden | F | 0.74 | 63.6% | 29.5% | |
| A. Isak | Sweden | F | 0.41 | 42.8% | 16.3% | |
| E. Saad | Tunisia | F | 0.30 | 16.8% | 5.4% | |
| Y. Ayari | Sweden | M | 0.10 | 12.7% | 4.0% | |
| A. Abdi | Tunisia | D | 0.18 | 10.5% | 3.2% | |
| G. Lagerbielke | Sweden | D | 0.07 | 9.6% | 2.9% | |
| A. B. Slimane | Tunisia | F | 0.13 | 7.9% | 2.4% | |
| G. Nilsson | Sweden | F | 0.24 | 6.2% | 1.9% | |
| H. Mejbri | Tunisia | M | 0.10 | 6.0% | 1.8% | |
| J. Karlström | Sweden | M | 0.04 | 5.9% | 1.8% | |
| A. Bernhardsson | Sweden | M | 0.04 | 5.9% | 1.8% | |
| B. Nygren | Sweden | M | 0.04 | 5.9% | 1.8% | |
| G. Gudmundsson | Sweden | M | 0.04 | 5.9% | 1.8% | |
| M. Talbi | Tunisia | D | 0.07 | 4.5% | 1.3% |
First-scorer probabilities sum to 89.7% across all named players (own goals + no goal account for the rest). To find value, divide bookmaker odds by 1/firstProb — odds higher than that mean the book is offering positive EV.