FIFA World Cup
USA vs Australia
Friday, Jun 19, 19:00
Consensus
Low · 44.2%USA
34.6%
book 55.5%
Draw
28.2%
book 25.9%
Australia
37.2%
book 18.6%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| form | 12.6% | 30.6% | 56.9% |
| poisson | 6.6% | 22.2% | 71.2% |
| elo | 33.8% | 31.8% | 34.4% |
| market | 55.5% | 25.9% | 18.6% |
- USA wPPG 1.11 (home 1.45, L-L-L-D-W)
- Australia wPPG 1.84 (away 2.33, W-W-W-D-W)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta -0.94
- xG USA 0.26 vs Australia 1.56
- League avg: home 1.50 / away 1.15
- Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
- Elo USA 1509 vs Australia 1573
- Home-field bonus +60
- Bookmaker 1X2 prices, with their margin stripped out
Value
- away 4.75EV +76.5%Edge 18.6%Kelly 20.4%