FIFA World Cup
USA vs Paraguay
Saturday, Jun 13, 01:00
Consensus
Medium · 54.0%USA
51.6%
book 46.8%
Draw
27.7%
book 28.6%
Paraguay
20.7%
book 24.6%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| form | 51.8% | 32.5% | 15.7% |
| poisson | 65.9% | 22.4% | 11.7% |
| elo | 46.2% | 26.1% | 27.7% |
| market | 46.8% | 28.6% | 24.6% |
- USA wPPG 1.34 (home 1.45, L-L-D-W-L)
- Paraguay wPPG 1.00 (away 0.89, W-D-L-D-L)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta 0.75
- xG USA 1.58 vs Paraguay 0.47
- League avg: home 1.50 / away 1.15
- Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
- Elo USA 1516 vs Paraguay 1487
- Home-field bonus +60
- Bookmaker 1X2 prices, with their margin stripped out
Value
- home 2.05EV +5.9%Edge 4.8%Kelly 5.6%
Goalscorer probabilities
xG 1.58 – 0.47 · No goal 12.8% confirmed XI
Each player's chance of scoring blends their club goals from the last 10 match-equivalents with national-team form (UEFA / FIFA tournaments). Rates are nudged toward a typical level for their position so small samples don't run wild, then scaled to fit the team's expected goals shown above.
| Track | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Tillman | USA | M | 0.16 | 23.0% | 10.4% | |
| C. Pulišić | USA | M | 0.16 | 23.0% | 10.4% | |
| F. Balogun | USA | F | 0.13 | 20.1% | 8.9% | |
| A. Sanabria | Paraguay | F | 0.36 | 12.3% | 5.2% | |
| C. Richards | USA | D | 0.07 | 11.7% | 5.0% | |
| R. Pepi | USA | F | 0.30 | 9.2% | 3.9% | |
| J. Enciso | Paraguay | F | 0.24 | 8.6% | 3.6% | |
| T. Adams | USA | M | 0.04 | 7.2% | 3.0% | |
| S. Dest | USA | M | 0.04 | 7.2% | 3.0% | |
| W. McKennie | USA | M | 0.04 | 7.2% | 3.0% | |
| T. Weah | USA | F | 0.19 | 5.9% | 2.4% | |
| H. Wright | USA | F | 0.19 | 5.9% | 2.4% | |
| O. Alderete | Paraguay | D | 0.13 | 4.6% | 1.9% | |
| A. Zendejas | USA | F | 0.13 | 4.2% | 1.7% |
First-scorer probabilities sum to 81.9% across all named players (own goals + no goal account for the rest). To find value, divide bookmaker odds by 1/firstProb — odds higher than that mean the book is offering positive EV.