FIFA World Cup
Scotland vs Morocco
Friday, Jun 19, 22:00
Consensus
Medium · 54.7%Scotland
18.8%
book 23.1%
Draw
28.0%
book 28.6%
Morocco
53.2%
book 48.3%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| form | 3.7% | 24.0% | 72.3% |
| poisson | 18.9% | 25.5% | 55.6% |
| elo | 30.1% | 28.2% | 41.7% |
| market | 23.1% | 28.6% | 48.3% |
- Scotland wPPG 0.57 (home 0.88, L-D-D-L-L)
- Morocco wPPG 2.47 (away 2.17, L-W-W-W-W)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta -1.85
- xG Scotland 0.65 vs Morocco 1.37
- League avg: home 1.50 / away 1.15
- Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
- Elo Scotland 1459 vs Morocco 1576
- Home-field bonus +60
- Bookmaker 1X2 prices, with their margin stripped out
Value
- away 1.95EV +3.7%Edge 4.9%Kelly 3.9%