FIFA World Cup
Argentina vs Algeria
Wednesday, Jun 17, 01:00
Consensus
Medium · 69.8%Argentina
74.0%
book 71.1%
Draw
17.2%
book 19.3%
Algeria
8.8%
book 9.6%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| form | 64.5% | 27.2% | 8.3% |
| poisson | 91.6% | 5.6% | 2.8% |
| elo | 45.3% | 26.5% | 28.2% |
| market | 71.1% | 19.3% | 9.6% |
- Argentina wPPG 2.87 (home 3.00, W-W-W-W-W)
- Algeria wPPG 2.06 (away 1.57, W-W-W-W-W)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta 1.28
- xG Argentina 3.83 vs Algeria 0.61
- League avg: home 1.50 / away 1.15
- Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
- Elo Argentina 1582 vs Algeria 1560
- Home-field bonus +60
- Bookmaker 1X2 prices, with their margin stripped out
Value
No edge detected vs current bookmaker odds (or odds unavailable).
Goalscorer probabilities
xG 3.83 – 0.61 · No goal 1.2% predicted XI
Each player's chance of scoring blends their club goals from the last 10 match-equivalents with national-team form (UEFA / FIFA tournaments). Rates are nudged toward a typical level for their position so small samples don't run wild, then scaled to fit the team's expected goals shown above.
| Track | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Martínez | Argentina | F | 0.69 | 77.9% | 31.6% | |
| L. Messi | Argentina | F | 0.47 | 64.0% | 21.4% | |
| A. Mac Allister | Argentina | M | 0.16 | 28.9% | 7.1% | |
| M. E. A. Amoura | Algeria | F | 0.69 | 25.7% | 6.2% | |
| E. Fernández | Argentina | M | 0.10 | 19.7% | 4.6% | |
| T. Almada | Argentina | M | 0.10 | 19.7% | 4.6% | |
| C. Romero | Argentina | D | 0.07 | 15.0% | 3.4% | |
| L. Martínez | Argentina | D | 0.07 | 15.0% | 3.4% | |
| R. De Paul | Argentina | M | 0.04 | 9.3% | 2.0% | |
| A. Gouiri | Algeria | F | 0.19 | 7.8% | 1.7% | |
| J. Hadjam | Algeria | D | 0.13 | 5.4% | 1.2% | |
| G. Montiel | Argentina | D | 0.02 | 4.5% | 1.0% | |
| F. Medina | Argentina | D | 0.02 | 4.5% | 1.0% | |
| N. Bentaleb | Algeria | M | 0.10 | 4.2% | 0.9% |
First-scorer probabilities sum to 92.9% across all named players (own goals + no goal account for the rest). To find value, divide bookmaker odds by 1/firstProb — odds higher than that mean the book is offering positive EV.