FIFA World Cup
Austria vs Jordan
Wednesday, Jun 17, 04:00
Consensus
Medium · 61.6%Austria
65.8%
book 70.2%
Draw
21.8%
book 19.5%
Jordan
12.3%
book 10.3%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| form | 62.2% | 28.3% | 9.5% |
| poisson | 64.9% | 21.6% | 13.5% |
| elo | 48.8% | 24.8% | 26.3% |
| market | 70.2% | 19.5% | 10.3% |
- Austria wPPG 2.25 (home 2.14, W-W-W-W-W)
- Jordan wPPG 1.66 (away 1.33, W-D-W-L-W)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta 1.17
- xG Austria 1.66 vs Jordan 0.57
- League avg: home 1.50 / away 1.15
- Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
- Elo Austria 1569 vs Jordan 1522
- Home-field bonus +60
- Bookmaker 1X2 prices, with their margin stripped out
Value
No edge detected vs current bookmaker odds (or odds unavailable).
Goalscorer probabilities
xG 1.66 – 0.57 · No goal 10.8% confirmed XI
Each player's chance of scoring blends their club goals from the last 10 match-equivalents with national-team form (UEFA / FIFA tournaments). Rates are nudged toward a typical level for their position so small samples don't run wild, then scaled to fit the team's expected goals shown above.
| Track | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Sabitzer | Austria | M | 0.27 | 28.3% | 12.5% | |
| P. Lienhart | Austria | D | 0.18 | 20.2% | 8.5% | |
| A. Olwan | Jordan | F | 0.52 | 18.6% | 7.8% | |
| K. Laimer | Austria | M | 0.16 | 17.6% | 7.3% | |
| S. Kalajdžić | Austria | F | 0.13 | 15.3% | 6.3% | |
| X. Schlager | Austria | M | 0.10 | 11.7% | 4.7% | |
| R. Schmid | Austria | M | 0.10 | 11.7% | 4.7% | |
| M. Gregoritsch | Austria | F | 0.47 | 10.6% | 4.2% | |
| M. Tamari | Jordan | F | 0.24 | 9.2% | 3.6% | |
| S. Posch | Austria | D | 0.07 | 8.9% | 3.5% | |
| M. Arnautović | Austria | F | 0.30 | 6.9% | 2.7% | |
| N. Seiwald | Austria | M | 0.04 | 5.4% | 2.1% | |
| O. A. Fakhouri | Jordan | F | 0.13 | 5.1% | 2.0% | |
| N. Al Rawabdeh | Jordan | M | 0.10 | 3.9% | 1.5% |
First-scorer probabilities sum to 83.9% across all named players (own goals + no goal account for the rest). To find value, divide bookmaker odds by 1/firstProb — odds higher than that mean the book is offering positive EV.