FIFA World Cup
Uzbekistan vs Colombia
Thursday, Jun 18, 02:00
Consensus
Low · 27.5%Uzbekistan
27.3%
book 10.3%
Draw
29.0%
book 20.6%
Colombia
43.7%
book 69.1%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| form | 23.3% | 36.6% | 40.1% |
| poisson | 66.4% | 28.8% | 4.8% |
| elo | 37.4% | 30.3% | 32.3% |
| market | 10.3% | 20.6% | 69.1% |
- Uzbekistan wPPG 2.03 (home 2.43, L-W-W-W-D)
- Colombia wPPG 2.73 (away 1.56, W-W-W-W-W)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta -0.34
- xG Uzbekistan 1.24 vs Colombia 0.15
- League avg: home 1.50 / away 1.15
- Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
- Elo Uzbekistan 1532 vs Colombia 1566
- Home-field bonus +60
- Bookmaker 1X2 prices, with their margin stripped out
Value
- home 8.50EV +131.9%Edge 17.0%Kelly 17.6%
- draw 4.50EV +30.4%Edge 8.4%Kelly 8.7%
Goalscorer probabilities
xG 1.24 – 0.15 · No goal 24.9% predicted XI
Each player's chance of scoring blends their club goals from the last 10 match-equivalents with national-team form (UEFA / FIFA tournaments). Rates are nudged toward a typical level for their position so small samples don't run wild, then scaled to fit the team's expected goals shown above.
| Track | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. Shomurodov | Uzbekistan | F | 0.30 | 26.4% | 15.6% | |
| A. Fayzullaev | Uzbekistan | M | 0.27 | 23.9% | 13.9% | |
| O. Urunov | Uzbekistan | M | 0.21 | 19.4% | 11.0% | |
| O. Shukurov | Uzbekistan | M | 0.10 | 9.7% | 5.2% | |
| O. Khamrobekov | Uzbekistan | M | 0.10 | 9.7% | 5.2% | |
| R. Ashurmatov | Uzbekistan | D | 0.07 | 7.3% | 3.9% | |
| S. Nasrullaev | Uzbekistan | D | 0.07 | 7.3% | 3.9% | |
| A. Abdullaev | Uzbekistan | M | 0.04 | 4.4% | 2.3% | |
| L. Díaz | Colombia | M | 0.32 | 3.1% | 1.6% | |
| A. Khusanov | Uzbekistan | D | 0.02 | 2.2% | 1.1% | |
| F. Sayfiev | Uzbekistan | D | 0.02 | 2.2% | 1.1% | |
| D. Muñoz | Colombia | M | 0.21 | 2.0% | 1.0% | |
| J. Arias | Colombia | M | 0.21 | 2.0% | 1.0% | |
| J. Lerma | Colombia | M | 0.16 | 1.5% | 0.8% |
First-scorer probabilities sum to 70.6% across all named players (own goals + no goal account for the rest). To find value, divide bookmaker odds by 1/firstProb — odds higher than that mean the book is offering positive EV.