FIFA World Cup
Mexico vs South Africa
Thursday, Jun 11, 19:00
Consensus
Low · 46.3%Mexico
59.0%
book 69.1%
Draw
24.7%
book 20.6%
South Africa
16.2%
book 10.3%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| form | 37.8% | 37.4% | 24.8% |
| poisson | 54.4% | 25.6% | 20.1% |
| elo | 43.9% | 27.2% | 28.9% |
| market | 69.1% | 20.6% | 10.3% |
- Mexico wPPG 2.22 (home 2.44, W-L-W-W-L)
- South Africa wPPG 2.01 (away 1.83, W-W-W-L-W)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta 0.26
- xG Mexico 1.37 vs South Africa 0.69
- League avg: home 1.50 / away 1.15
- Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
- Elo Mexico 1541 vs South Africa 1528
- Home-field bonus +60
- Bookmaker 1X2 prices, with their margin stripped out
Value
- away 8.50EV +37.9%Edge 5.9%Kelly 5.0%
- draw 4.50EV +11.4%Edge 4.2%Kelly 3.2%
Goalscorer probabilities
xG 1.37 – 0.69 · No goal 12.7% confirmed XI
Each player's chance of scoring blends their club goals from the last 10 match-equivalents with national-team form (UEFA / FIFA tournaments). Rates are nudged toward a typical level for their position so small samples don't run wild, then scaled to fit the team's expected goals shown above.
| Track | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. Jiménez | Mexico | F | 0.63 | 46.2% | 24.6% | |
| C. Montes | Mexico | D | 0.18 | 16.2% | 7.0% | |
| I. Rayners | South Africa | F | 0.19 | 12.6% | 5.4% | |
| L. Foster | South Africa | F | 0.19 | 12.6% | 5.4% | |
| E. Lira | Mexico | M | 0.10 | 9.3% | 3.9% | |
| T. Mokoena | South Africa | M | 0.10 | 6.9% | 2.8% | |
| J. Adams | South Africa | M | 0.10 | 6.9% | 2.8% | |
| I. Okon | South Africa | D | 0.07 | 5.2% | 2.1% | |
| R. Alvarado | Mexico | M | 0.04 | 4.3% | 1.7% | |
| B. Gutiérrez | Mexico | M | 0.04 | 4.3% | 1.7% | |
| Á. Fidalgo | Mexico | M | 0.04 | 4.3% | 1.7% | |
| J. Quiñones | Mexico | M | 0.04 | 4.3% | 1.7% | |
| A. Vega | Mexico | F | 0.19 | 3.5% | 1.4% | |
| S. Giménez | Mexico | F | 0.19 | 3.5% | 1.4% |
First-scorer probabilities sum to 82.0% across all named players (own goals + no goal account for the rest). To find value, divide bookmaker odds by 1/firstProb — odds higher than that mean the book is offering positive EV.