FIFA World Cup
Mexico vs South Korea
Friday, Jun 19, 01:00
Consensus
Low · 21.6%Mexico
44.2%
book 52.8%
Draw
27.4%
book 27.1%
South Korea
28.4%
book 20.1%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| form | 23.9% | 36.9% | 39.3% |
| poisson | 37.9% | 20.7% | 41.3% |
| elo | 39.1% | 29.5% | 31.4% |
| market | 52.8% | 27.1% | 20.1% |
- Mexico wPPG 1.96 (home 2.30, D-W-L-W-W)
- South Korea wPPG 2.41 (away 2.44, W-W-L-D-W)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta -0.31
- xG Mexico 1.65 vs South Korea 1.73
- League avg: home 1.50 / away 1.15
- Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
- Elo Mexico 1538 vs South Korea 1560
- Home-field bonus +60
- Bookmaker 1X2 prices, with their margin stripped out
Value
- away 4.50EV +27.8%Edge 8.3%Kelly 8.0%