MLS
San Diego FC vs FC Cincinnati
Sunday, May 17, 01:30
Consensus
High · 71.0%San Diego FC
66.5%
book 51.1%
Draw
16.4%
book 20.9%
FC Cincinnati
17.1%
book 28.0%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| form | 58.6% | 29.8% | 11.5% |
| poisson | 95.9% | 2.7% | 1.3% |
| elo | 51.5% | 23.6% | 24.9% |
| market | 51.1% | 20.9% | 28.0% |
- San Diego FC wPPG 1.43 (home 2.00, D-L-W-W-W)
- FC Cincinnati wPPG 1.27 (away 0.71, W-W-W-L-W)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta 1.02
- xG San Diego FC 5.28 vs FC Cincinnati 0.75
- League avg: home 1.50 / away 1.15
- Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
- Elo San Diego FC 1541 vs FC Cincinnati 1475
- Home-field bonus +60
- Bookmaker 1X2 prices, with their margin stripped out
Value
- home 1.86EV +23.6%Edge 15.4%Kelly 27.5%
Goalscorer probabilities
xG 5.28 – 0.75 · No goal 0.2% confirmed XI
Each player's chance of scoring blends their club goals from the last 10 match-equivalents with national-team form (UEFA / FIFA tournaments). Rates are nudged toward a typical level for their position so small samples don't run wild, then scaled to fit the team's expected goals shown above.
| Track | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Dreyer | San Diego FC | F | 0.80 | 83.7% | 28.2% | |
| A. Pellegrino | San Diego FC | F | 0.52 | 69.4% | 18.4% | |
| M. Ingvartsen | San Diego FC | F | 0.36 | 55.4% | 12.5% | |
| O. Valakari | San Diego FC | M | 0.27 | 45.4% | 9.4% | |
| K. Denkey | FC Cincinnati | F | 0.47 | 20.0% | 3.5% | |
| C. McVey | San Diego FC | D | 0.07 | 15.5% | 2.6% | |
| Evander | FC Cincinnati | F | 0.30 | 13.4% | 2.2% | |
| A. Godoy | San Diego FC | M | 0.04 | 9.6% | 1.6% | |
| D. Vazquez | San Diego FC | M | 0.04 | 9.6% | 1.6% | |
| G. Valenzuela | FC Cincinnati | F | 0.19 | 8.6% | 1.4% | |
| B. Zamblé | San Diego FC | F | 0.19 | 7.9% | 1.3% | |
| N. Hagglund | FC Cincinnati | D | 0.13 | 5.9% | 0.9% | |
| A. Mighten | San Diego FC | F | 0.13 | 5.7% | 0.9% | |
| A. Alvarado Jr | San Diego FC | F | 0.13 | 5.7% | 0.9% |
First-scorer probabilities sum to 93.8% across all named players (own goals + no goal account for the rest). To find value, divide bookmaker odds by 1/firstProb — odds higher than that mean the book is offering positive EV.