MLS
Houston Dynamo vs Vancouver Whitecaps
Sunday, May 17, 00:30
Consensus
Medium · 50.2%Houston Dynamo
24.4%
book 26.5%
Draw
23.9%
book 24.1%
Vancouver Whitecaps
51.7%
book 49.4%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| form | 7.1% | 26.0% | 66.9% |
| poisson | 32.1% | 17.3% | 50.6% |
| elo | 31.7% | 29.7% | 38.7% |
| market | 26.5% | 24.1% | 49.4% |
- Houston Dynamo wPPG 1.17 (home 1.88, W-L-L-D-W)
- Vancouver Whitecaps wPPG 2.53 (away 2.25, L-W-W-W-W)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta -1.40
- xG Houston Dynamo 2.17 vs Vancouver Whitecaps 2.71
- League avg: home 1.50 / away 1.15
- Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
- Elo Houston Dynamo 1484 vs Vancouver Whitecaps 1579
- Home-field bonus +60
- Bookmaker 1X2 prices, with their margin stripped out
Value
No edge detected vs current bookmaker odds (or odds unavailable).
Goalscorer probabilities
xG 2.17 – 2.71 · No goal 0.8% confirmed XI
Each player's chance of scoring blends their club goals from the last 10 match-equivalents with national-team form (UEFA / FIFA tournaments). Rates are nudged toward a typical level for their position so small samples don't run wild, then scaled to fit the team's expected goals shown above.
| Track | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. White | Vancouver Whitecaps | F | 0.69 | 61.2% | 18.1% | |
| Guilherme | Houston Dynamo | M | 0.38 | 43.4% | 10.9% | |
| T. Müller | Vancouver Whitecaps | M | 0.38 | 40.5% | 9.9% | |
| S. Berhalter | Vancouver Whitecaps | M | 0.21 | 25.2% | 5.5% | |
| E. Ponce | Houston Dynamo | F | 0.19 | 24.8% | 5.4% | |
| L. Ennali | Houston Dynamo | D | 0.18 | 23.8% | 5.2% | |
| M. Laborda | Vancouver Whitecaps | D | 0.18 | 22.0% | 4.7% | |
| M. Bogusz | Houston Dynamo | M | 0.16 | 20.9% | 4.5% | |
| J. McGlynn | Houston Dynamo | M | 0.16 | 20.9% | 4.5% | |
| F. Andrade | Houston Dynamo | D | 0.13 | 17.5% | 3.7% | |
| K. Cabrera | Vancouver Whitecaps | M | 0.10 | 12.8% | 2.6% | |
| É. Ocampo | Vancouver Whitecaps | D | 0.07 | 9.7% | 2.0% | |
| T. Blackmon | Vancouver Whitecaps | D | 0.07 | 9.7% | 2.0% | |
| Artur | Houston Dynamo | M | 0.04 | 6.5% | 1.3% |
First-scorer probabilities sum to 93.3% across all named players (own goals + no goal account for the rest). To find value, divide bookmaker odds by 1/firstProb — odds higher than that mean the book is offering positive EV.