MLS
San Jose Earthquakes vs FC Dallas
Sunday, May 17, 02:30
Consensus
Medium · 51.1%San Jose Earthquakes
51.8%
book 48.4%
Draw
24.0%
book 24.5%
FC Dallas
24.3%
book 27.2%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| form | 38.6% | 37.1% | 24.3% |
| poisson | 71.4% | 14.3% | 14.3% |
| elo | 44.8% | 26.7% | 28.4% |
| market | 48.4% | 24.5% | 27.2% |
- San Jose Earthquakes wPPG 1.33 (home 1.88, L-L-L-W-L)
- FC Dallas wPPG 1.63 (away 1.14, D-W-W-D-W)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta 0.29
- xG San Jose Earthquakes 2.80 vs FC Dallas 1.19
- League avg: home 1.50 / away 1.15
- Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
- Elo San Jose Earthquakes 1535 vs FC Dallas 1516
- Home-field bonus +60
- Bookmaker 1X2 prices, with their margin stripped out
Value
No edge detected vs current bookmaker odds (or odds unavailable).
Goalscorer probabilities
xG 2.80 – 1.19 · No goal 1.9% confirmed XI
Each player's chance of scoring blends their club goals from the last 10 match-equivalents with national-team form (UEFA / FIFA tournaments). Rates are nudged toward a typical level for their position so small samples don't run wild, then scaled to fit the team's expected goals shown above.
| Track | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Judd | San Jose Earthquakes | F | 0.47 | 58.6% | 20.4% | |
| P. Musa | FC Dallas | F | 0.86 | 45.7% | 14.1% | |
| O. Bouda | San Jose Earthquakes | M | 0.32 | 45.6% | 14.1% | |
| D. Munie | San Jose Earthquakes | D | 0.18 | 28.9% | 7.9% | |
| B. Leroux | San Jose Earthquakes | M | 0.16 | 25.5% | 6.8% | |
| P. Delgado | FC Dallas | F | 0.24 | 16.0% | 4.0% | |
| J. Jasinski | San Jose Earthquakes | D | 0.07 | 13.1% | 3.3% | |
| O. Urhoghide | FC Dallas | D | 0.13 | 8.7% | 2.1% | |
| R. Vieira | San Jose Earthquakes | M | 0.04 | 8.1% | 1.9% | |
| I. Harkes | San Jose Earthquakes | M | 0.04 | 8.1% | 1.9% | |
| J. Ricketts | San Jose Earthquakes | M | 0.04 | 8.1% | 1.9% | |
| Kaick | FC Dallas | M | 0.10 | 6.9% | 1.7% | |
| J. Skahan | San Jose Earthquakes | M | 0.16 | 5.5% | 1.3% | |
| L. Farrington | FC Dallas | F | 0.36 | 4.8% | 1.1% |
First-scorer probabilities sum to 92.3% across all named players (own goals + no goal account for the rest). To find value, divide bookmaker odds by 1/firstProb — odds higher than that mean the book is offering positive EV.