MLS
New York Red Bulls vs New York City FC
Saturday, May 16, 23:30
Consensus
Low · 32.7%New York Red Bulls
32.7%
book 35.6%
Draw
26.6%
book 25.0%
New York City FC
40.8%
book 39.4%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| form | 11.2% | 29.6% | 59.3% |
| poisson | 42.2% | 23.1% | 34.7% |
| elo | 36.5% | 30.7% | 32.7% |
| market | 35.6% | 25.0% | 39.4% |
- New York Red Bulls wPPG 0.65 (home 1.17, L-D-L-W-L)
- New York City FC wPPG 1.56 (away 1.86, L-W-L-W-W)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta -1.04
- xG New York Red Bulls 1.45 vs New York City FC 1.29
- League avg: home 1.50 / away 1.15
- Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
- Elo New York Red Bulls 1465 vs New York City FC 1506
- Home-field bonus +60
- Bookmaker 1X2 prices, with their margin stripped out
Value
No edge detected vs current bookmaker odds (or odds unavailable).
Goalscorer probabilities
xG 1.45 – 1.29 · No goal 6.5% confirmed XI
Each player's chance of scoring blends their club goals from the last 10 match-equivalents with national-team form (UEFA / FIFA tournaments). Rates are nudged toward a typical level for their position so small samples don't run wild, then scaled to fit the team's expected goals shown above.
| Track | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Fernández | New York City FC | F | 0.74 | 42.7% | 17.9% | |
| J. Hall | New York Red Bulls | F | 0.47 | 39.3% | 16.0% | |
| E. Forsberg | New York Red Bulls | M | 0.21 | 20.2% | 7.2% | |
| J. Ruvalcaba | New York Red Bulls | F | 0.19 | 18.3% | 6.5% | |
| A. Ojeda | New York City FC | M | 0.21 | 14.6% | 5.1% | |
| C. Cowell | New York Red Bulls | F | 0.13 | 13.3% | 4.6% | |
| K. Parks | New York City FC | M | 0.16 | 11.0% | 3.7% | |
| M. Moralez | New York City FC | M | 0.16 | 11.0% | 3.7% | |
| H. Wolf | New York City FC | M | 0.16 | 11.0% | 3.7% | |
| A. Mehmeti | New York Red Bulls | M | 0.10 | 10.1% | 3.4% | |
| T. Gray | New York City FC | D | 0.07 | 5.4% | 1.8% | |
| R. Donkor | New York Red Bulls | M | 0.04 | 4.6% | 1.5% | |
| M. Sofo | New York Red Bulls | F | 0.19 | 3.8% | 1.2% | |
| K. Trewin | New York City FC | M | 0.04 | 3.3% | 1.1% |
First-scorer probabilities sum to 87.9% across all named players (own goals + no goal account for the rest). To find value, divide bookmaker odds by 1/firstProb — odds higher than that mean the book is offering positive EV.