MLS
New England Revolution vs Minnesota United
Saturday, May 16, 23:30
Consensus
Medium · 54.5%New England Revolution
51.9%
book 39.1%
Draw
23.4%
book 27.0%
Minnesota United
24.7%
book 33.9%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| form | 29.2% | 39.6% | 31.2% |
| poisson | 90.2% | 5.9% | 3.9% |
| elo | 43.9% | 27.2% | 28.9% |
| market | 39.1% | 27.0% | 33.9% |
- New England Revolution wPPG 0.87 (home 1.75, W-L-W-L-L)
- Minnesota United wPPG 1.52 (away 0.89, W-D-W-L-D)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta -0.04
- xG New England Revolution 4.31 vs Minnesota United 0.96
- League avg: home 1.50 / away 1.15
- Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
- Elo New England Revolution 1497 vs Minnesota United 1484
- Home-field bonus +60
- Bookmaker 1X2 prices, with their margin stripped out
Value
- home 2.40EV +24.5%Edge 12.8%Kelly 17.5%
Goalscorer probabilities
xG 4.31 – 0.96 · No goal 0.5% predicted XI
Each player's chance of scoring blends their club goals from the last 10 match-equivalents with national-team form (UEFA / FIFA tournaments). Rates are nudged toward a typical level for their position so small samples don't run wild, then scaled to fit the team's expected goals shown above.
| Track | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Turgeman | New England Revolution | F | 0.36 | 73.5% | 23.6% | |
| P. Miller | New England Revolution | D | 0.18 | 49.1% | 12.0% | |
| C. Gil | New England Revolution | M | 0.16 | 44.1% | 10.3% | |
| A. Yusuf | New England Revolution | M | 0.16 | 44.1% | 10.3% | |
| G. Yow | New England Revolution | M | 0.10 | 31.2% | 6.6% | |
| M. Fofana | New England Revolution | D | 0.07 | 24.3% | 4.9% | |
| J. Pereyra | Minnesota United | M | 0.27 | 22.3% | 4.5% | |
| K. Yeboah | Minnesota United | F | 0.24 | 20.7% | 4.1% | |
| A. Markanich | Minnesota United | D | 0.23 | 19.9% | 3.9% | |
| B. Raines | New England Revolution | M | 0.04 | 15.3% | 2.9% | |
| M. Polster | New England Revolution | M | 0.04 | 15.3% | 2.9% | |
| W. Sands | New England Revolution | D | 0.02 | 7.6% | 1.4% | |
| E. Kohler | New England Revolution | D | 0.02 | 7.6% | 1.4% | |
| M. Duggan | Minnesota United | D | 0.07 | 6.8% | 1.2% |
First-scorer probabilities sum to 93.5% across all named players (own goals + no goal account for the rest). To find value, divide bookmaker odds by 1/firstProb — odds higher than that mean the book is offering positive EV.