MLS
Philadelphia Union vs Columbus Crew
Saturday, May 16, 23:30
Consensus
Medium · 50.2%Philadelphia Union
47.9%
book 41.9%
Draw
25.1%
book 25.5%
Columbus Crew
27.0%
book 32.7%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| form | 56.1% | 30.9% | 13.0% |
| poisson | 59.0% | 19.1% | 21.9% |
| elo | 43.9% | 27.2% | 28.9% |
| market | 41.9% | 25.5% | 32.7% |
- Philadelphia Union wPPG 1.47 (home 1.25, W-W-W-L-W)
- Columbus Crew wPPG 0.79 (away 0.70, D-L-D-W-L)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta 0.91
- xG Philadelphia Union 2.07 vs Columbus Crew 1.17
- League avg: home 1.50 / away 1.15
- Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
- Elo Philadelphia Union 1513 vs Columbus Crew 1500
- Home-field bonus +60
- Bookmaker 1X2 prices, with their margin stripped out
Value
- home 2.25EV +7.8%Edge 6.0%Kelly 6.2%
Goalscorer probabilities
xG 2.07 – 1.17 · No goal 3.9% predicted XI
Each player's chance of scoring blends their club goals from the last 10 match-equivalents with national-team form (UEFA / FIFA tournaments). Rates are nudged toward a typical level for their position so small samples don't run wild, then scaled to fit the team's expected goals shown above.
| Track | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Iloski | Philadelphia Union | F | 0.30 | 41.3% | 14.9% | |
| B. Damiani | Philadelphia Union | F | 0.30 | 41.3% | 14.9% | |
| D. Gazdag | Columbus Crew | F | 0.30 | 41.0% | 14.8% | |
| I. Vassilev | Philadelphia Union | M | 0.27 | 37.7% | 13.2% | |
| D. Jean Jacques | Philadelphia Union | M | 0.10 | 16.3% | 5.0% | |
| M. Arfsten | Columbus Crew | M | 0.10 | 16.1% | 4.9% | |
| B. Bender | Philadelphia Union | M | 0.04 | 7.6% | 2.2% | |
| J. Lukić | Philadelphia Union | M | 0.04 | 7.6% | 2.2% | |
| J. Rafanello | Philadelphia Union | M | 0.04 | 7.6% | 2.2% | |
| H. Picard | Columbus Crew | M | 0.04 | 7.5% | 2.2% | |
| A. Gomes | Columbus Crew | M | 0.04 | 7.5% | 2.2% | |
| S. T. Bangoura | Columbus Crew | M | 0.04 | 7.5% | 2.2% | |
| T. Habroune | Columbus Crew | M | 0.04 | 7.5% | 2.2% | |
| N. Harriel | Philadelphia Union | D | 0.02 | 3.7% | 1.1% |
First-scorer probabilities sum to 90.3% across all named players (own goals + no goal account for the rest). To find value, divide bookmaker odds by 1/firstProb — odds higher than that mean the book is offering positive EV.