MLS
CF Montréal vs Chicago Fire
Saturday, May 16, 20:30
Consensus
Low · 44.9%CF Montréal
28.6%
book 32.5%
Draw
24.5%
book 23.9%
Chicago Fire
46.8%
book 43.7%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| form | 12.4% | 30.4% | 57.2% |
| poisson | 28.2% | 18.0% | 53.8% |
| elo | 34.4% | 31.8% | 33.8% |
| market | 32.5% | 23.9% | 43.7% |
- CF Montréal wPPG 0.85 (home 1.00, D-D-W-D-L)
- Chicago Fire wPPG 1.59 (away 1.57, W-L-W-W-W)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta -0.96
- xG CF Montréal 1.74 vs Chicago Fire 2.43
- League avg: home 1.50 / away 1.15
- Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
- Elo CF Montréal 1459 vs Chicago Fire 1516
- Home-field bonus +60
- Bookmaker 1X2 prices, with their margin stripped out
Value
No edge detected vs current bookmaker odds (or odds unavailable).
Goalscorer probabilities
xG 1.74 – 2.43 · No goal 1.5% confirmed XI
Each player's chance of scoring blends their club goals from the last 10 match-equivalents with national-team form (UEFA / FIFA tournaments). Rates are nudged toward a typical level for their position so small samples don't run wild, then scaled to fit the team's expected goals shown above.
| Track | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H. Cuypers | Chicago Fire | F | 0.58 | 55.3% | 17.9% | |
| P. Owusu | CF Montréal | F | 0.47 | 47.1% | 14.1% | |
| P. Zinckernagel | Chicago Fire | F | 0.36 | 39.1% | 11.0% | |
| W. Carmona | CF Montréal | F | 0.30 | 33.6% | 9.1% | |
| J. Elliott | Chicago Fire | D | 0.18 | 22.3% | 5.6% | |
| M. Haile-Selassie | Chicago Fire | F | 0.13 | 17.0% | 4.1% | |
| I. Jaime | CF Montréal | F | 0.13 | 16.6% | 4.0% | |
| J. Waterman | Chicago Fire | M | 0.10 | 13.0% | 3.1% | |
| R. Lod | Chicago Fire | M | 0.10 | 13.0% | 3.1% | |
| J. Dean | Chicago Fire | D | 0.07 | 9.8% | 2.3% | |
| L. Petrasso | CF Montréal | D | 0.07 | 9.6% | 2.3% | |
| M. Pineda | Chicago Fire | M | 0.04 | 6.0% | 1.4% | |
| S. Piette | CF Montréal | M | 0.04 | 5.9% | 1.3% | |
| V. Loturi | CF Montréal | M | 0.04 | 5.9% | 1.3% |
First-scorer probabilities sum to 92.5% across all named players (own goals + no goal account for the rest). To find value, divide bookmaker odds by 1/firstProb — odds higher than that mean the book is offering positive EV.