MLS
Orlando City SC vs Atlanta United
Saturday, May 16, 23:30
Consensus
Medium · 50.9%Orlando City SC
52.4%
book 46.1%
Draw
24.9%
book 25.5%
Atlanta United
22.6%
book 28.4%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| form | 31.0% | 39.6% | 29.3% |
| poisson | 84.3% | 10.5% | 5.2% |
| elo | 36.1% | 30.9% | 33.0% |
| market | 46.1% | 25.5% | 28.4% |
- Orlando City SC wPPG 0.64 (home 1.17, L-D-W-D-D)
- Atlanta United wPPG 0.70 (away 0.50, D-L-D-W-L)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta 0.04
- xG Orlando City SC 2.72 vs Atlanta United 0.50
- League avg: home 1.50 / away 1.15
- Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
- Elo Orlando City SC 1418 vs Atlanta United 1462
- Home-field bonus +60
- Bookmaker 1X2 prices, with their margin stripped out
Value
- home 2.05EV +7.5%Edge 6.3%Kelly 7.1%
Goalscorer probabilities
xG 2.72 – 0.50 · No goal 4.0% predicted XI
Each player's chance of scoring blends their club goals from the last 10 match-equivalents with national-team form (UEFA / FIFA tournaments). Rates are nudged toward a typical level for their position so small samples don't run wild, then scaled to fit the team's expected goals shown above.
| Track | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Ojeda | Orlando City SC | M | 0.27 | 60.9% | 26.3% | |
| T. Souza | Orlando City SC | F | 0.19 | 48.6% | 18.7% | |
| D. Brekalo | Orlando City SC | D | 0.07 | 23.0% | 7.3% | |
| A. Miranchuk | Atlanta United | M | 0.32 | 17.7% | 5.5% | |
| I. Angulo | Orlando City SC | M | 0.04 | 14.5% | 4.4% | |
| B. Ojeda | Orlando City SC | M | 0.04 | 14.5% | 4.4% | |
| E. Atuesta | Orlando City SC | M | 0.04 | 14.5% | 4.4% | |
| J. Ellis | Orlando City SC | M | 0.04 | 14.5% | 4.4% | |
| E. Latte Lath | Atlanta United | F | 0.19 | 10.8% | 3.2% | |
| G. Dorsey | Orlando City SC | D | 0.02 | 7.2% | 2.1% | |
| Iago | Orlando City SC | D | 0.02 | 7.2% | 2.1% | |
| R. Jansson | Orlando City SC | D | 0.02 | 7.2% | 2.1% | |
| T. Jacob | Atlanta United | D | 0.07 | 4.4% | 1.3% | |
| T. Muyumba | Atlanta United | M | 0.04 | 2.7% | 0.8% |
First-scorer probabilities sum to 90.2% across all named players (own goals + no goal account for the rest). To find value, divide bookmaker odds by 1/firstProb — odds higher than that mean the book is offering positive EV.