MLS
DC United vs St.Louis City
Saturday, May 16, 23:30
Consensus
Low · 38.2%DC United
34.4%
book 42.3%
Draw
26.8%
book 27.5%
St.Louis City
38.7%
book 30.3%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| form | 23.7% | 36.8% | 39.5% |
| poisson | 19.3% | 16.8% | 63.8% |
| elo | 37.8% | 30.1% | 32.1% |
| market | 42.3% | 27.5% | 30.3% |
- DC United wPPG 0.71 (home 0.71, L-L-D-D-W)
- St.Louis City wPPG 1.14 (away 1.29, W-L-L-L-D)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta -0.32
- xG DC United 1.28 vs St.Louis City 2.45
- League avg: home 1.50 / away 1.15
- Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
- Elo DC United 1465 vs St.Louis City 1497
- Home-field bonus +60
- Bookmaker 1X2 prices, with their margin stripped out
Value
- away 3.10EV +20.0%Edge 8.5%Kelly 9.5%
Goalscorer probabilities
xG 1.28 – 2.45 · No goal 2.4% predicted XI
Each player's chance of scoring blends their club goals from the last 10 match-equivalents with national-team form (UEFA / FIFA tournaments). Rates are nudged toward a typical level for their position so small samples don't run wild, then scaled to fit the team's expected goals shown above.
| Track | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Hartel | St.Louis City | M | 0.43 | 61.7% | 23.6% | |
| E. Löwen | St.Louis City | M | 0.21 | 37.4% | 11.5% | |
| T. Baribo | DC United | F | 0.30 | 32.5% | 9.7% | |
| S. Córdova | St.Louis City | F | 0.13 | 25.6% | 7.3% | |
| J. Hopkins | DC United | M | 0.21 | 24.2% | 6.8% | |
| J. Sang-bin | St.Louis City | M | 0.10 | 19.9% | 5.5% | |
| L. Munteanu | DC United | F | 0.13 | 16.0% | 4.3% | |
| J. Orozco | St.Louis City | D | 0.07 | 15.2% | 4.1% | |
| M. Peltola | DC United | M | 0.10 | 12.3% | 3.2% | |
| Peglow | DC United | M | 0.10 | 12.3% | 3.2% | |
| D. Polvara | St.Louis City | M | 0.04 | 9.4% | 2.4% | |
| D. Edelman | St.Louis City | M | 0.04 | 9.4% | 2.4% | |
| B. Servania | DC United | M | 0.04 | 5.7% | 1.4% | |
| L. MacNaughton | St.Louis City | D | 0.02 | 4.6% | 1.2% |
First-scorer probabilities sum to 91.7% across all named players (own goals + no goal account for the rest). To find value, divide bookmaker odds by 1/firstProb — odds higher than that mean the book is offering positive EV.