MLS
Charlotte FC vs Toronto FC
Saturday, May 16, 23:30
Consensus
Medium · 56.6%Charlotte FC
58.4%
book 59.1%
Draw
23.8%
book 22.1%
Toronto FC
17.8%
book 18.8%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| form | 57.0% | 30.5% | 12.5% |
| poisson | 64.8% | 21.4% | 13.8% |
| elo | 43.5% | 27.4% | 29.1% |
| market | 59.1% | 22.1% | 18.8% |
- Charlotte FC wPPG 1.74 (home 1.78, W-W-W-W-L)
- Toronto FC wPPG 0.91 (away 0.89, D-D-D-D-D)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta 0.95
- xG Charlotte FC 1.67 vs Toronto FC 0.59
- League avg: home 1.50 / away 1.15
- Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
- Elo Charlotte FC 1503 vs Toronto FC 1494
- Home-field bonus +60
- Bookmaker 1X2 prices, with their margin stripped out
Value
No edge detected vs current bookmaker odds (or odds unavailable).
Goalscorer probabilities
xG 1.67 – 0.59 · No goal 10.4% predicted XI
Each player's chance of scoring blends their club goals from the last 10 match-equivalents with national-team form (UEFA / FIFA tournaments). Rates are nudged toward a typical level for their position so small samples don't run wild, then scaled to fit the team's expected goals shown above.
| Track | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I. Toklomati | Charlotte FC | F | 0.52 | 49.7% | 25.5% | |
| P. Biel | Charlotte FC | M | 0.21 | 24.2% | 10.3% | |
| W. Zaha | Charlotte FC | M | 0.21 | 24.2% | 10.3% | |
| K. C. Vargas | Charlotte FC | M | 0.16 | 18.5% | 7.6% | |
| D. Kerr | Toronto FC | F | 0.24 | 14.6% | 5.9% | |
| D. Sallói | Toronto FC | F | 0.24 | 14.6% | 5.9% | |
| J. Osorio | Toronto FC | M | 0.16 | 9.6% | 3.7% | |
| L. D. L. Torre | Charlotte FC | M | 0.04 | 5.7% | 2.2% | |
| D. Diani | Charlotte FC | M | 0.04 | 5.7% | 2.2% | |
| W. Zimmerman | Toronto FC | D | 0.07 | 4.7% | 1.8% | |
| M. Henry | Toronto FC | M | 0.04 | 2.8% | 1.1% | |
| A. Coello | Toronto FC | M | 0.04 | 2.8% | 1.1% | |
| M. Cimermancic | Toronto FC | M | 0.04 | 2.8% | 1.1% | |
| N. Byrne | Charlotte FC | D | 0.02 | 2.8% | 1.0% |
First-scorer probabilities sum to 84.3% across all named players (own goals + no goal account for the rest). To find value, divide bookmaker odds by 1/firstProb — odds higher than that mean the book is offering positive EV.