Saudi Pro League
Al-Hazem vs Al-Taawoun
Thursday, May 21, 18:00
Consensus
Medium · 52.5%Al-Hazem
19.4%
book 17.5%
Draw
21.1%
book 18.5%
Al-Taawoun
59.5%
book 64.0%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| form | 13.1% | 30.9% | 56.0% |
| poisson | 21.1% | 16.2% | 62.7% |
| elo | 33.8% | 31.8% | 34.4% |
| market | 17.5% | 18.5% | 64.0% |
- Al-Hazem wPPG 0.86 (home 1.29, D-L-W-D-W)
- Al-Taawoun wPPG 1.73 (away 1.13, W-W-D-W-W)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta -0.91
- xG Al-Hazem 1.55 vs Al-Taawoun 2.71
- League avg: home 1.50 / away 1.15
- Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
- Elo Al-Hazem 1462 vs Al-Taawoun 1525
- Home-field bonus +60
- Bookmaker 1X2 prices, with their margin stripped out
Value
No edge detected vs current bookmaker odds (or odds unavailable).
Goalscorer probabilities
xG 1.55 – 2.71 · No goal 1.4% confirmed XI
Each player's chance of scoring blends their club goals from the last 10 match-equivalents with national-team form (UEFA / FIFA tournaments). Rates are nudged toward a typical level for their position so small samples don't run wild, then scaled to fit the team's expected goals shown above.
| Track | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. Martínez | Al-Taawoun | F | 0.80 | 77.7% | 32.6% | |
| O. Al Soma | Al-Hazem | F | 0.41 | 44.1% | 12.6% | |
| F. Martins | Al-Hazem | M | 0.21 | 25.8% | 6.5% | |
| A. Fulgini | Al-Taawoun | M | 0.16 | 25.3% | 6.3% | |
| M. Al-Kuwaykibi | Al-Taawoun | M | 0.10 | 17.1% | 4.1% | |
| Biel | Al-Taawoun | M | 0.10 | 17.1% | 4.1% | |
| A. Bah | Al-Hazem | M | 0.10 | 13.2% | 3.1% | |
| E. Mokwana | Al-Hazem | M | 0.10 | 13.2% | 3.1% | |
| A. El Mahdioui | Al-Taawoun | M | 0.04 | 8.0% | 1.8% | |
| Flávio | Al-Taawoun | M | 0.04 | 8.0% | 1.8% | |
| M. H. Alqahtani | Al-Taawoun | F | 0.19 | 6.6% | 1.5% | |
| Y. Al-Shammari | Al-Hazem | F | 0.24 | 6.4% | 1.4% | |
| Y. Oumarou | Al-Hazem | M | 0.04 | 6.1% | 1.4% | |
| A. Al-Harajin | Al-Hazem | M | 0.04 | 6.1% | 1.4% |
First-scorer probabilities sum to 92.7% across all named players (own goals + no goal account for the rest). To find value, divide bookmaker odds by 1/firstProb — odds higher than that mean the book is offering positive EV.