Liga Portugal Betclic
Estoril Praia vs Benfica
Saturday, May 16, 19:30
Consensus
Low · 47.4%Estoril Praia
15.4%
book 7.2%
Draw
19.7%
book 13.9%
Benfica
64.9%
book 78.8%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| form | 17.3% | 33.4% | 49.3% |
| poisson | 26.8% | 18.9% | 54.2% |
| elo | 36.5% | 30.7% | 32.7% |
| market | 7.2% | 13.9% | 78.8% |
- Estoril Praia wPPG 1.08 (home 1.88, L-D-D-W-W)
- Benfica wPPG 2.11 (away 2.43, D-W-W-D-W)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta -0.66
- xG Estoril Praia 1.48 vs Benfica 2.17
- League avg: home 1.50 / away 1.15
- Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
- Elo Estoril Praia 1532 vs Benfica 1573
- Home-field bonus +60
- Bookmaker 1X2 prices, with their margin stripped out
Value
- home 11.00EV +69.4%Edge 8.2%Kelly 6.9%
- draw 6.25EV +23.0%Edge 5.7%Kelly 4.4%
Goalscorer probabilities
xG 1.48 – 2.17 · No goal 2.6% confirmed XI
Each player's chance of scoring blends their club goals from the last 10 match-equivalents with national-team form (UEFA / FIFA tournaments). Rates are nudged toward a typical level for their position so small samples don't run wild, then scaled to fit the team's expected goals shown above.
| Track | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| V. Pavlidis | Benfica | F | 0.74 | 59.9% | 23.0% | |
| Y. Begraoui | Estoril Praia | F | 0.91 | 48.6% | 16.7% | |
| A. Schjelderup | Benfica | M | 0.21 | 22.8% | 6.5% | |
| J. Carvalho | Estoril Praia | M | 0.32 | 21.0% | 5.9% | |
| F. Aursnes | Benfica | M | 0.16 | 17.4% | 4.8% | |
| A. Lacximicant | Estoril Praia | F | 0.24 | 16.3% | 4.5% | |
| R. Ríos | Benfica | M | 0.10 | 11.5% | 3.1% | |
| G. Prestianni | Benfica | M | 0.10 | 11.5% | 3.1% | |
| R. Silva | Benfica | M | 0.10 | 11.5% | 3.1% | |
| A. Bah | Benfica | D | 0.07 | 8.7% | 2.3% | |
| N. Otamendi | Benfica | D | 0.07 | 8.7% | 2.3% | |
| J. Holsgrove | Estoril Praia | M | 0.10 | 7.0% | 1.8% | |
| R. Sánchez | Estoril Praia | D | 0.07 | 5.3% | 1.4% | |
| Ferro | Estoril Praia | D | 0.07 | 5.3% | 1.4% |
First-scorer probabilities sum to 91.5% across all named players (own goals + no goal account for the rest). To find value, divide bookmaker odds by 1/firstProb — odds higher than that mean the book is offering positive EV.