Liga Portugal Betclic
Famalicão vs FC Alverca
Saturday, May 16, 19:30
Consensus
Medium · 66.9%Famalicão
68.4%
book 63.5%
Draw
19.2%
book 21.7%
FC Alverca
12.4%
book 14.8%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| form | 55.3% | 31.2% | 13.5% |
| poisson | 89.8% | 6.7% | 3.4% |
| elo | 47.9% | 25.3% | 26.8% |
| market | 63.5% | 21.7% | 14.8% |
- Famalicão wPPG 1.13 (home 1.63, D-D-W-W-L)
- FC Alverca wPPG 1.08 (away 0.86, L-W-W-L-L)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta 0.88
- xG Famalicão 3.49 vs FC Alverca 0.58
- League avg: home 1.50 / away 1.15
- Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
- Elo Famalicão 1509 vs FC Alverca 1468
- Home-field bonus +60
- Bookmaker 1X2 prices, with their margin stripped out
Value
- home 1.49EV +1.9%Edge 4.9%Kelly 3.8%
Goalscorer probabilities
xG 3.49 – 0.58 · No goal 1.7% confirmed XI
Each player's chance of scoring blends their club goals from the last 10 match-equivalents with national-team form (UEFA / FIFA tournaments). Rates are nudged toward a typical level for their position so small samples don't run wild, then scaled to fit the team's expected goals shown above.
| Track | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sorriso | Famalicão | M | 0.21 | 45.6% | 13.8% | |
| M. D. Amorim | Famalicão | M | 0.16 | 36.1% | 10.2% | |
| G. Dias | Famalicão | M | 0.16 | 36.1% | 10.2% | |
| G. Sá | Famalicão | M | 0.16 | 36.1% | 10.2% | |
| S. Elisor | Famalicão | F | 0.13 | 31.9% | 8.7% | |
| J. De Haas | Famalicão | D | 0.13 | 30.7% | 8.3% | |
| S. Lima | FC Alverca | F | 0.30 | 13.5% | 3.3% | |
| A. Joujou | Famalicão | F | 0.24 | 12.7% | 3.1% | |
| T. Van De Looi | Famalicão | M | 0.04 | 12.0% | 2.9% | |
| P. Santos | Famalicão | F | 0.19 | 9.9% | 2.4% | |
| U. Abubakar | Famalicão | F | 0.19 | 9.9% | 2.4% | |
| Figueiredo | FC Alverca | F | 0.19 | 8.7% | 2.1% | |
| Chiquinho | FC Alverca | F | 0.19 | 8.7% | 2.1% | |
| Lincoln | FC Alverca | M | 0.16 | 7.2% | 1.7% |
First-scorer probabilities sum to 92.4% across all named players (own goals + no goal account for the rest). To find value, divide bookmaker odds by 1/firstProb — odds higher than that mean the book is offering positive EV.