Trendyol Süper Lig
Antalyaspor vs Kocaelispor
Sunday, May 17, 17:00
Consensus
Low · 19.6%Antalyaspor
45.7%
book 57.1%
Draw
27.4%
book 23.1%
Kocaelispor
26.9%
book 19.8%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| form | 23.7% | 36.8% | 39.4% |
| poisson | 35.5% | 30.2% | 34.3% |
| elo | 39.1% | 29.5% | 31.4% |
| market | 57.1% | 23.1% | 19.8% |
- Antalyaspor wPPG 0.90 (home 1.14, W-L-D-L-D)
- Kocaelispor wPPG 1.66 (away 1.50, W-D-W-D-D)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta -0.32
- xG Antalyaspor 0.91 vs Kocaelispor 0.89
- League avg: home 1.50 / away 1.15
- Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
- Elo Antalyaspor 1481 vs Kocaelispor 1503
- Home-field bonus +60
- Bookmaker 1X2 prices, with their margin stripped out
Value
- away 4.50EV +20.9%Edge 7.1%Kelly 6.0%
- draw 3.90EV +7.0%Edge 4.3%Kelly 2.4%
Goalscorer probabilities
xG 0.91 – 0.89 · No goal 16.5% confirmed XI
Each player's chance of scoring blends their club goals from the last 10 match-equivalents with national-team form (UEFA / FIFA tournaments). Rates are nudged toward a typical level for their position so small samples don't run wild, then scaled to fit the team's expected goals shown above.
| Track | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. van de Streek | Antalyaspor | F | 0.36 | 27.7% | 14.2% | |
| D. Agyei | Kocaelispor | F | 0.36 | 24.7% | 12.4% | |
| R. Rivas | Kocaelispor | F | 0.19 | 14.0% | 6.6% | |
| S. Ballet | Antalyaspor | M | 0.16 | 13.3% | 6.2% | |
| D. Churlinov | Kocaelispor | F | 0.13 | 10.1% | 4.6% | |
| L. Giannetti | Antalyaspor | D | 0.07 | 6.6% | 3.0% | |
| H. Smolčić | Kocaelispor | D | 0.07 | 5.8% | 2.6% | |
| S. Dursun | Kocaelispor | F | 0.36 | 5.3% | 2.4% | |
| Y. Boli | Antalyaspor | F | 0.24 | 4.2% | 1.9% | |
| S. Dikmen | Antalyaspor | M | 0.04 | 4.0% | 1.8% | |
| J. Ceesay | Antalyaspor | M | 0.04 | 4.0% | 1.8% | |
| A. Ömür | Antalyaspor | M | 0.04 | 4.0% | 1.8% | |
| R. Safouri | Antalyaspor | M | 0.04 | 4.0% | 1.8% | |
| H. Keita | Kocaelispor | M | 0.04 | 3.5% | 1.5% |
First-scorer probabilities sum to 78.5% across all named players (own goals + no goal account for the rest). To find value, divide bookmaker odds by 1/firstProb — odds higher than that mean the book is offering positive EV.