Trendyol Süper Lig
Trabzonspor vs Gençlerbirliği
Sunday, May 17, 17:00
Consensus
Medium · 61.7%Trabzonspor
52.8%
book 33.0%
Draw
23.9%
book 27.1%
Gençlerbirliği
23.3%
book 40.0%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| form | 71.4% | 24.0% | 4.6% |
| poisson | 83.7% | 12.6% | 3.7% |
| elo | 50.6% | 24.0% | 25.4% |
| market | 33.0% | 27.1% | 40.0% |
- Trabzonspor wPPG 2.11 (home 2.29, W-W-D-L-W)
- Gençlerbirliği wPPG 1.02 (away 0.29, L-W-D-W-D)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta 1.71
- xG Trabzonspor 2.27 vs Gençlerbirliği 0.27
- League avg: home 1.50 / away 1.15
- Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
- Elo Trabzonspor 1544 vs Gençlerbirliği 1484
- Home-field bonus +60
- Bookmaker 1X2 prices, with their margin stripped out
Value
- home 2.82EV +48.9%Edge 19.8%Kelly 26.8%
Goalscorer probabilities
xG 2.27 – 0.27 · No goal 7.9% confirmed XI
Each player's chance of scoring blends their club goals from the last 10 match-equivalents with national-team form (UEFA / FIFA tournaments). Rates are nudged toward a typical level for their position so small samples don't run wild, then scaled to fit the team's expected goals shown above.
| Track | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Onuachu | Trabzonspor | F | 0.86 | 68.2% | 39.0% | |
| F. Augusto | Trabzonspor | M | 0.32 | 35.0% | 14.7% | |
| U. Nayir | Trabzonspor | F | 0.13 | 16.4% | 6.1% | |
| C. I. Oulaï | Trabzonspor | M | 0.10 | 12.5% | 4.6% | |
| B. Bouchouari | Trabzonspor | M | 0.04 | 5.8% | 2.0% | |
| A. Nwakaeme | Trabzonspor | M | 0.04 | 5.8% | 2.0% | |
| O. Ülgün | Gençlerbirliği | M | 0.16 | 4.9% | 1.7% | |
| M. Mimaroğlu | Gençlerbirliği | M | 0.16 | 4.9% | 1.7% | |
| C. Nwaiwu | Trabzonspor | D | 0.18 | 4.5% | 1.6% | |
| A. M. Traoré | Gençlerbirliği | F | 0.13 | 4.2% | 1.5% | |
| O. Çakıroğlu | Trabzonspor | F | 0.13 | 3.4% | 1.2% | |
| E. Y. Alkurt | Trabzonspor | F | 0.13 | 3.4% | 1.2% | |
| F. Tongya | Gençlerbirliği | M | 0.10 | 3.2% | 1.1% | |
| W. Pina | Trabzonspor | D | 0.02 | 2.8% | 1.0% |
First-scorer probabilities sum to 86.6% across all named players (own goals + no goal account for the rest). To find value, divide bookmaker odds by 1/firstProb — odds higher than that mean the book is offering positive EV.