Trendyol Süper Lig
Fenerbahçe vs Eyüpspor
Sunday, May 17, 17:00
Consensus
High · 73.2%Fenerbahçe
72.4%
book 66.0%
Draw
16.3%
book 17.9%
Eyüpspor
11.3%
book 16.1%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| form | 72.8% | 24.0% | 3.2% |
| poisson | 89.0% | 7.1% | 4.0% |
| elo | 55.5% | 21.7% | 22.8% |
| market | 66.0% | 17.9% | 16.1% |
- Fenerbahçe wPPG 2.37 (home 2.25, W-W-W-D-W)
- Eyüpspor wPPG 0.76 (away 1.14, L-L-D-W-D)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta 1.96
- xG Fenerbahçe 3.54 vs Eyüpspor 0.67
- League avg: home 1.50 / away 1.15
- Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
- Elo Fenerbahçe 1563 vs Eyüpspor 1468
- Home-field bonus +60
- Bookmaker 1X2 prices, with their margin stripped out
Value
- home 1.45EV +5.0%Edge 6.4%Kelly 11.1%
Goalscorer probabilities
xG 3.54 – 0.67 · No goal 1.5% confirmed XI
Each player's chance of scoring blends their club goals from the last 10 match-equivalents with national-team form (UEFA / FIFA tournaments). Rates are nudged toward a typical level for their position so small samples don't run wild, then scaled to fit the team's expected goals shown above.
| Track | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Aktürkoğlu | Fenerbahçe | F | 0.41 | 75.3% | 30.8% | |
| N. Kanté | Fenerbahçe | M | 0.16 | 41.1% | 11.7% | |
| A. Musaba | Fenerbahçe | M | 0.10 | 28.9% | 7.5% | |
| M. Müldür | Fenerbahçe | D | 0.07 | 22.4% | 5.6% | |
| U. Bozok | Eyüpspor | F | 0.30 | 19.1% | 4.7% | |
| İ. Yüksek | Fenerbahçe | M | 0.04 | 14.0% | 3.3% | |
| O. Aydın | Fenerbahçe | M | 0.04 | 14.0% | 3.3% | |
| Fred | Fenerbahçe | M | 0.04 | 14.0% | 3.3% | |
| M. Altunbaş | Eyüpspor | M | 0.21 | 13.9% | 3.3% | |
| A. E. Fettahoğlu | Fenerbahçe | F | 0.13 | 8.4% | 1.9% | |
| A. Ekici | Fenerbahçe | F | 0.13 | 8.4% | 1.9% | |
| E. E. Sayar | Fenerbahçe | F | 0.13 | 8.4% | 1.9% | |
| Y. E. Demir | Fenerbahçe | D | 0.02 | 7.0% | 1.6% | |
| Ç. Söyüncü | Fenerbahçe | D | 0.02 | 7.0% | 1.6% |
First-scorer probabilities sum to 92.6% across all named players (own goals + no goal account for the rest). To find value, divide bookmaker odds by 1/firstProb — odds higher than that mean the book is offering positive EV.