LaLiga
Villarreal vs Atlético Madrid
Sunday, May 24, 19:00
Consensus
Medium · 53.3%Villarreal
49.0%
book 38.6%
Draw
23.6%
book 24.3%
Atlético Madrid
27.4%
book 37.0%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| form | 51.9% | 32.5% | 15.6% |
| poisson | 73.8% | 14.2% | 11.9% |
| elo | 43.9% | 27.2% | 28.9% |
| market | 38.6% | 24.3% | 37.0% |
- Villarreal wPPG 1.33 (home 2.25, W-L-W-W-L)
- Atlético Madrid wPPG 1.09 (away 1.25, D-L-L-W-W)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta 0.75
- xG Villarreal 2.61 vs Atlético Madrid 0.94
- League avg: home 1.50 / away 1.15
- Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
- Elo Villarreal 1513 vs Atlético Madrid 1500
- Home-field bonus +60
- Bookmaker 1X2 prices, with their margin stripped out
Value
- home 2.45EV +20.0%Edge 10.4%Kelly 13.8%
Goalscorer probabilities
xG 2.61 – 0.94 · No goal 2.9% confirmed XI
Each player's chance of scoring blends their club goals from the last 10 match-equivalents with national-team form (UEFA / FIFA tournaments). Rates are nudged toward a typical level for their position so small samples don't run wild, then scaled to fit the team's expected goals shown above.
| Track | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G. Mikautadze | Villarreal | F | 0.52 | 56.5% | 21.5% | |
| N. Pépé | Villarreal | M | 0.21 | 28.6% | 8.7% | |
| A. Moleiro | Villarreal | M | 0.21 | 28.6% | 8.7% | |
| P. Gueye | Villarreal | M | 0.16 | 22.0% | 6.4% | |
| A. Lookman | Atlético Madrid | F | 0.30 | 21.2% | 6.1% | |
| A. Pérez | Villarreal | F | 0.13 | 19.2% | 5.5% | |
| G. Simeone | Atlético Madrid | F | 0.24 | 17.7% | 5.0% | |
| A. Griezmann | Atlético Madrid | F | 0.19 | 13.9% | 3.9% | |
| S. Mouriño | Villarreal | D | 0.07 | 11.2% | 3.1% | |
| A. Pedraza | Villarreal | D | 0.07 | 11.2% | 3.1% | |
| T. Buchanan | Villarreal | F | 0.24 | 7.2% | 1.9% | |
| A. Sørloth | Atlético Madrid | F | 0.47 | 6.9% | 1.8% | |
| D. Parejo | Villarreal | M | 0.04 | 6.8% | 1.8% | |
| P. C. D. L. Torre | Villarreal | F | 0.13 | 4.0% | 1.1% |
First-scorer probabilities sum to 91.3% across all named players (own goals + no goal account for the rest). To find value, divide bookmaker odds by 1/firstProb — odds higher than that mean the book is offering positive EV.