LaLiga
Osasuna vs Espanyol
Sunday, May 17, 17:00
Consensus
Medium · 55.5%Osasuna
52.6%
book 45.0%
Draw
26.9%
book 32.1%
Espanyol
20.4%
book 22.8%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| form | 43.0% | 35.6% | 21.4% |
| poisson | 77.9% | 11.6% | 10.5% |
| elo | 47.5% | 25.5% | 27.0% |
| market | 45.0% | 32.1% | 22.8% |
- Osasuna wPPG 0.94 (home 2.00, L-L-D-W-L)
- Espanyol wPPG 1.18 (away 1.25, L-L-W-W-W)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta 0.44
- xG Osasuna 3.26 vs Espanyol 1.18
- League avg: home 1.50 / away 1.15
- Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
- Elo Osasuna 1509 vs Espanyol 1472
- Home-field bonus +60
- Bookmaker 1X2 prices, with their margin stripped out
Value
- home 2.10EV +10.6%Edge 7.6%Kelly 9.6%
Goalscorer probabilities
xG 3.26 – 1.18 · No goal 1.2% confirmed XI
Each player's chance of scoring blends their club goals from the last 10 match-equivalents with national-team form (UEFA / FIFA tournaments). Rates are nudged toward a typical level for their position so small samples don't run wild, then scaled to fit the team's expected goals shown above.
| Track | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Budimir | Osasuna | F | 0.58 | 72.5% | 27.0% | |
| V. Muñoz | Osasuna | M | 0.21 | 37.6% | 9.9% | |
| R. García | Osasuna | M | 0.16 | 29.4% | 7.3% | |
| K. García | Espanyol | F | 0.24 | 19.9% | 4.6% | |
| E. Expósito | Espanyol | F | 0.19 | 15.7% | 3.6% | |
| A. Catena | Osasuna | D | 0.07 | 15.3% | 3.5% | |
| E. Boyomo | Osasuna | D | 0.07 | 15.3% | 3.5% | |
| R. García | Osasuna | F | 0.36 | 14.2% | 3.2% | |
| P. Milla | Espanyol | M | 0.16 | 13.1% | 2.9% | |
| L. Cabrera | Espanyol | D | 0.13 | 10.9% | 2.4% | |
| C. Romero | Espanyol | D | 0.13 | 10.9% | 2.4% | |
| L. Torró | Osasuna | M | 0.04 | 9.5% | 2.1% | |
| J. Moncayola | Osasuna | M | 0.04 | 9.5% | 2.1% | |
| A. Oroz | Osasuna | M | 0.04 | 9.5% | 2.1% |
First-scorer probabilities sum to 92.9% across all named players (own goals + no goal account for the rest). To find value, divide bookmaker odds by 1/firstProb — odds higher than that mean the book is offering positive EV.